Gold Price Trend Analysis: The Structural Bull Market Logic from 2024 to 2026

When we analyze recent years’ gold price trends, we find that this is not simply driven by inflation expectations or short-term hedging, but by deep fractures in the global financial system leading to long-term structural changes. The rise in gold from 2024 to 2026 reflects market responses to these fundamental shifts.

Five Fundamental Drivers of Continuous Gold Price Rise

In the past two years, the gold market has shown remarkable resilience. Starting from just over $2,000 in early 2024, prices have broken through the $5,000 mark, with a cumulative increase of over 150%. According to Reuters and Bloomberg data, the gold price increase from 2024 to 2025 has exceeded 30%, reaching the highest level in nearly 30 years, surpassing the 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. This upward trend is not accidental but supported by multiple reinforcing structural factors.

Ongoing Impact of Trade Protectionism

Uncertainty in trade policies has become a key variable influencing recent gold prices. Consecutive tariff measures have heightened risk aversion, prompting investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Historical experience shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, such as the US-China trade war in 2018, gold prices typically experience short-term surges of 5-10%. By 2026, regional trade frictions persist, and the residual effects of tariffs continue to push gold prices higher.

Gradual Erosion of the US Dollar’s Dominance

The expansion of US fiscal deficits, frequent debt ceiling debates, and the global de-dollarization trend have led capital to shift from dollar assets to hard assets. When confidence in the dollar declines, gold priced in USD benefits, attracting more inflows. This is not a short-term phenomenon but a sign of long-term structural change.

Fed’s Rate Cut Cycle

The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, increasing its relative attractiveness. Historically, each rate-cut cycle has been associated with significant gold price increases—such as during 2008–2011 and 2020–2022. Expectations of continued rate cuts into 2026, with 1-2 more reductions, provide strong support for gold. Notably, markets tend to price in rate cut expectations early, which can be tracked via tools like CME FedWatch to gauge short-term price movements.

Long-term Geopolitical Uncertainty

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East tensions, and regional instability keep safe-haven demand high. The fragility of global supply chains amplifies the impact of these geopolitical events on gold prices, often causing short-term spikes.

Strategic Central Bank Accumulation

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2025, global central banks net purchased over 1,200 tons of gold, marking the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons. More importantly, the 2025 central bank gold reserve survey shows that 76% of respondents expect gold’s proportion in reserves to “moderately or significantly increase” over the next five years, while most anticipate a decline in dollar reserves. This indicates a structural asset reallocation by central banks, reflecting long-term doubts about the dollar system.

Additional Insights on Structural Factors

Beyond these five core drivers, other factors influencing gold prices include:

• Global economic slowdown and high debt levels: By 2025, global debt reaches $307 trillion, constraining interest rate policies and favoring monetary easing, indirectly boosting gold’s appeal.

• Increasing stock market risks: With markets at historic highs and limited leading stocks, concentration risk rises. Allocating to gold becomes a key strategy to balance portfolio volatility.

• Media and social sentiment: Continuous news coverage and social media interactions generate short-term capital inflows into gold, driven by emotional reactions.

• Growing demand for flexible trading: Investors increasingly seek dynamic trading tools like XAU/USD, allowing position adjustments without long-term holding commitments, especially around major US economic data releases.

Gold Price Outlook for 2026: Structural Support Persists

As 2026 progresses, spot gold remains above $5,150–$5,200 per ounce after multiple record highs. Building on over 60% gains in 2025, prices have risen another 18–20% so far in 2026, with no signs of weakening. Analysts are generally optimistic about the remainder of 2026, believing that the same structural factors fueling the bull market will continue to operate.

Market Consensus Targets:

• Average annual price: $5,200–$5,600 per ounce
• Year-end target: typically $5,400–$5,800
• More optimistic: $6,000–$6,500
• High-end scenario: if geopolitical risks escalate or the dollar depreciates sharply, prices could exceed $6,500

Major Financial Institutions’ Professional Forecasts

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, citing sustained central bank buying and declining real yields as key supports.

JPMorgan expects prices to reach $5,550 in Q4, driven by ETF inflows and ongoing safe-haven demand.

Citi projects an average of $5,800 for the second half of the year, with potential to hit $6,200 amid recession fears or high inflation.

UBS remains more conservative, setting a year-end target of $5,300 but acknowledging room for adjustment if rate cuts accelerate.

WGC and LBMA participants collectively forecast an average of around $5,450 for 2026, significantly higher than previous surveys.

Retail Investor Strategies: Balancing Opportunities and Risks

Understanding the logic behind gold price analysis, investors should adopt a rational approach. The current gold rally is not over; both medium- and short-term opportunities exist, but impulsive followings without careful thought are risky.

For experienced short-term traders: Volatility offers excellent trading opportunities. Market liquidity is ample, and directional moves are easier to judge, especially during sharp rises or falls.

For beginners: To capitalize on short-term swings, start with small positions and avoid over-leveraging. Emotional reactions can lead to severe losses. Use economic calendars to track US economic data in real-time, aiding decision-making.

For long-term physical gold holders: Be prepared for significant fluctuations. While the long-term trend remains upward, tolerating intermediate volatility requires prior mental preparation.

Portfolio allocation: Gold can be included, but remember its higher volatility compared to stocks. Avoid putting all assets into gold; diversification remains prudent.

Maximizing returns: Combine long-term holding with short-term trading around price swings, especially before and after US market data releases. This requires experience and risk management skills.

Key points for investors:

• Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%, indicating notable risk.
• Gold’s investment cycle is very long; as a store of value, a decade or more is needed to realize expected gains, with potential for doubling or halving within that period.
• Physical gold has higher transaction costs, typically 5–20%. For Taiwanese investors, currency fluctuations between USD and TWD can also impact returns.

Final Reflections on Gold Price Trend Analysis

This bull market appears driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but the underlying logic is the structural fracture of the global credit system. Gold fundamentally serves as a long-term hedge against systemic risks. Central bank gold purchases have been ongoing since 2022, reflecting long-term doubts about the dollar system.

In 2026, this trend will not suddenly disappear, as inflation remains sticky, debt pressures persist, and geopolitical tensions continue. The gold price bottom is rising, limiting bear markets and strengthening the bull case.

It’s crucial to note that gold’s rise is never a straight line. In 2025, it retraced 10–15% due to Fed policy adjustments. If real yields rebound or crises ease in 2026, volatility will likely intensify again. The key is establishing a systematic monitoring mechanism rather than passively following news headlines. Mastering the core logic of gold price trend analysis is fundamental to long-term investment success.