Will gold prices rise again? In-depth analysis of gold price trends in 2026

When gold prices break through the $5,000 mark, “Will gold continue to rise?” becomes the hottest question in the investment community. This is not just a simple price forecast but a response to the deep-seated contradictions within the global financial system. Over the past two years, gold has surged from just over $2,000 to around $5,150–$5,200, an increase of over 150%, hitting a 30-year high. But the logic behind this bull market is far more complex than mere “inflation panic.”

The long-term rise of gold is driven not by isolated short-term factors but by one or more structural changes capable of shaking the credibility of mainstream fiat currencies. Until these fundamental contradictions are resolved, gold’s monetary premium will persist. Therefore, understanding the essence of gold price fluctuations is key to navigating future trends.

Why Has Gold Been Rising? Unveiling 5 Structural Drivers

1. Long-term Impact of Trade Frictions and Tariff Policies

Repeated tariff policies directly triggered a gold price rally in 2025. Policy uncertainty has continued to escalate, boosting risk aversion in markets, and driving gold prices higher.

Historical experience shows that whenever major economies clash in trade (e.g., the 2018 US-China trade war), gold prices tend to spike 5-10% in short-term periods of policy uncertainty. As we enter 2026, the aftershocks of tariffs are still felt, and regional trade frictions persist, remaining a key variable supporting gold prices.

2. Gradual Erosion of Confidence in the US Dollar

When global confidence in the dollar wanes, gold priced in USD benefits, attracting more capital inflows. Between 2025 and 2026, the US fiscal deficit has widened, debt ceiling debates have been frequent, and the “de-dollarization” trend is accelerating. Capital is continuously shifting from dollar assets to physical hard assets. This is not a short-term phenomenon but a deep structural shift.

3. Support from the Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Cycle

Lower interest rates weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors. If economic conditions weaken, the pace of rate cuts could accelerate.

Historically, each rate-cutting cycle has been associated with significant gold price increases—examples include 2008–2011 and 2020–2022. In 2026, another 1-2 rate cuts are expected, providing solid support for gold.

However, not all rate cut announcements lead to immediate gold rallies. Sometimes, prices fall because markets have already priced in expectations or hawkish comments from Fed officials cause uncertainty. Monitoring the CME FedWatch tool’s probability of rate cuts is an effective way to gauge short-term gold trends—rising probabilities tend to push gold higher; declining probabilities may lead to corrections.

4. Persistent Geopolitical Risks

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East tensions, and frequent regional crises keep safe-haven demand high. Geopolitical events often cause sharp spikes in gold prices. In 2025–2026, these risks are not diminishing but are amplified by fragile global supply chains, continuously supporting gold demand.

5. Central Banks’ Continued Gold Accumulation

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2025, global central banks net purchased over 1,200 tons of gold—marking the fourth consecutive year of net purchases exceeding 1,000 tons. Notably, in the WGC’s 2025 central bank gold reserve survey, 76% of respondents expect their gold reserves to “moderately or significantly increase” over the next five years, while most also anticipate a decline in dollar reserves.

This is not a temporary move but a structural shift among central banks, reflecting long-term doubts about the dollar system. The trend of central bank gold buying, which erupted in 2022, has never truly stopped, signaling ongoing skepticism toward the US dollar.

Other Factors Driving Gold Prices Higher

Beyond these five core drivers, other factors also contribute:

• Global debt and low growth dilemma—by 2025, global debt exceeds $307 trillion (IMF data). High debt levels limit monetary policy flexibility, likely leading to more accommodative policies, lowering real interest rates, and indirectly boosting gold’s appeal.

• Stock market risks—equity markets are at historic highs, but leadership is concentrated in few stocks. This increases systemic risk; disappointment could trigger sharp declines, prompting investors to allocate more to gold for stability.

• Media and social media herd mentality—intense coverage and sentiment on social platforms have driven short-term capital into gold, reinforcing upward momentum.

• Upgraded trading methods—investors now prefer flexible trading of derivatives like XAU/USD rather than static holdings, increasing liquidity and responsiveness but also volatility.

Is It Too Late for Retail Investors to Enter Gold? Full Risk Analysis

After understanding the logic behind gold’s rise, a new question arises: Is this rally already near its end? For investors with different risk tolerances, timing and strategies vary.

Short-term traders: If experienced, current volatility offers good trading opportunities. Liquidity is ample, and short-term directions are easier to judge, especially during sharp swings. Seasoned traders can ride the waves for quick gains.

Warning: Beginners should be cautious—start small, avoid over-leverage, and use economic calendars to track US economic data releases, which can aid decision-making.

Long-term holders: If you plan to buy physical gold for long-term allocation, be prepared for significant fluctuations. The long-term bullish logic remains, but enduring volatility requires mental readiness.

Portfolio allocation: Including gold is feasible, but don’t overexpose—gold’s volatility is higher than stocks. Diversification remains the prudent approach.

Advanced strategies—combining long and short: Maximize returns by holding long-term positions while trading short-term swings around key data releases. This requires experience and risk management skills.

Three key investor reminders:

• Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%.

• Gold is a long-term wealth preservation asset; over 10+ years, it can appreciate, but also may halve or double.

• Physical gold has higher transaction costs (5–20%), which must be factored into returns.

• For Taiwanese investors, FX fluctuations (USD/TWD) can also impact actual gains.

Will Gold Rise in 2026? Expert Perspectives

As January 2026 concludes, spot gold (XAU/USD) has repeatedly hit new highs this month, staying above $5,150–$5,200 per ounce. After a 60%+ increase in 2025, gold has risen another 18–20% in early 2026, with no signs of slowing.

Consensus among analysts: Driven by the same structural factors fueling the bull market over the past two years, further gains are expected. Mainstream forecasts include:

• Average 2026 price: $5,200–$5,600 per ounce (many institutions have raised previous estimates).

• Year-end target: typically $5,400–$5,800, with some optimistic views reaching $6,000–$6,500.

• High-end scenarios: some institutions (e.g., Societe Generale, independent strategists) suggest that geopolitical escalation or sharp dollar depreciation could push prices beyond $6,500.

Major financial institutions’ forecasts (as of late January 2026):

• Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, citing continued central bank buying and declining real yields.

• JPMorgan expects Q4 prices around $5,550, driven by ETF inflows and safe-haven demand.

• Citi projects an average of $5,800 for H2, with potential to reach $6,200 in recession or high-inflation scenarios.

• UBS remains conservative, with a target of $5,300, but admits that faster rate cuts could make this too cautious.

• WGC / LBMA participants’ average forecast is about $5,450, higher than previous surveys.

Conclusion: Gold Will Continue to Rise, But Systematic Monitoring Is Essential

This gold bull market is driven by short-term factors like rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but its deeper driver is the structural cracks in the global credit system, with gold serving as a long-term hedge against systemic risks.

Central bank gold purchases, ongoing since 2022, reflect long-term doubts about the dollar system. This trend is unlikely to vanish in 2026—issues like sticky inflation, debt burdens, and geopolitical tensions persist, and their resolution is not immediate.

As the bottom of gold prices rises and bear markets see limited declines, the bull trend remains strong. The probability of further gains is high.

However, it’s crucial to remember that gold prices are never a straight line. In 2025, expectations of Fed policy shifts caused a 10–15% correction. Similarly, in 2026, real interest rate rebounds or crises easing could trigger sharp volatility. The key is not to predict exact directions but to have a systematic approach to monitor these changes, rather than blindly chasing headlines.

Discipline in allocation, disciplined trading, and patience are the hallmarks of successful investors in this gold bull market.