Bernstein $190 Target Price Interpretation: Circle Q4 Financial Report and "Internet Financial Infrastructure" Logic Analysis

As the crypto market experiences a over $2 trillion market cap correction in early 2026, a research report from Bernstein defies the trend by rating stablecoin issuer Circle as a market outperformer, with a target price of $190, implying up to 129% upside. This bold prediction is not based on bets on cyclical crypto rebounds but stems from a profound revaluation of its value: Circle is shifting from being a simple proxy for crypto assets to becoming a core internet infrastructure driving automation in the global economy. This article, based on Gate data (as of February 26, 2026) and Circle’s latest Q4 2025 financial report, deeply analyzes the financial data, technological progress, and industry logic behind this rating.

Event Overview: Institutional Reassessment and Price Leap

On February 26, 2026, Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm, reaffirmed its outperform rating on Circle and set a firm target price of $190. This judgment is primarily based on Circle’s just-released Q4 and full-year 2025 financials. Data shows that in Q4 2025, Circle achieved total revenue and reserve income of $770 million, up 77% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA reached $167 million, a 412% surge YoY. Driven by strong performance and optimistic outlooks, Circle’s stock price soared after the earnings release, with intraday gains exceeding 35%. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out that Circle’s performance sharply diverges from the declining crypto market.

Background and Timeline: From Payment Tools to Multi-Chain Infrastructure

Circle’s leap is not an overnight success but the result of a clear technological and regulatory evolution path.

As early as late 2025, Circle began paving the way for new growth. In October 2025, its Layer-1 blockchain network Arc launched a testnet, attracting over 100 partners. Then, in December 2025, Circle received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, laying a foundation for deeper integration into traditional finance.

By 2026, Circle’s strategic plans accelerated. At the end of January, the company released its 2026 roadmap, outlining plans to commercialize the Arc chain and deeply integrate cross-chain transfer protocols (CCTP) and payment networks. The financial report release marks a phased validation of these strategic deployments.

In fact, Circle achieved significant financial growth in Q4 2025 and the full year, while advancing the deployment of the Arc mainnet and its banking license.

Data and Structural Analysis: Breaking Free from Proxy Finance

Bernstein redefines Circle as a fintech infrastructure provider, supported by solid financial data.

Beyond USDC’s strong performance, Circle’s diversified revenue structure is taking shape. The euro stablecoin EURC’s circulation grew 284% YoY to €310 million, indicating penetration into the European market. Meanwhile, Circle’s payment network (CPN) has expanded to 55 financial institutions, with an annualized transaction volume of $5.7 billion. These data points sketch a picture of an infrastructure that is no longer solely dependent on a single asset but is building a comprehensive financial services ecosystem.

Public Sentiment Analysis: Consensus and Divergence

Market sentiment around Circle’s surge shows clear layers of opinion.

Viewpoint 1: Infrastructure Narrative (Core driver of stock price)

Many bullish institutions, including Bernstein, believe Circle is in the early stages of a profound fundamental transformation. As AI and blockchain merge, an automated economy requires native digital dollar mediums. Circle’s Arc chain and compliant stablecoins form the settlement layer of this new economy. CEO Jeremy Allaire’s assertion—that the global economy will become more internet-native and automated—is widely cited as a long-term logical foundation.

Viewpoint 2: Interest Rate Dependency and Competition Risks (Cautious perspective)

Factually, 99% of Circle’s revenue still hinges on interest income from reserve assets (mainly U.S. Treasuries). Speculatively, if the Fed enters a rate-cut cycle, profit margins could be squeezed. Additionally, with the clarification of stablecoin regulations under laws like the GENIUS Act, traditional banks and payment giants (e.g., Visa, JPMorgan) are expected to enter the market aggressively. Whether Circle can maintain its first-mover advantage amid intensified competition remains a key debate.

Reality Check: Redefining Outperformance

The “outperform” rating carries a special meaning now. It does not refer to outperforming the volatile crypto market index but to Circle’s valuation growth surpassing the average of traditional fintech sectors as an independent entity.

Factually, the passage of the “Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act” in the U.S. clarifies the legal boundaries and legitimacy for compliant stablecoin issuers.

Opinion-wise, with its trust bank license and compliance framework, Circle has built a high entry barrier. Its fintech infrastructure positioning means its clients are no longer just crypto traders but include traditional enterprises and sovereign entities like Visa, Intuit, and the Bermuda government. This shift in client structure fundamentally alters its valuation logic—from cyclical transaction fee-driven to more stable service and infrastructure usage fee-driven.

Industry Impact: Paradigm Shift in Stablecoins

Circle’s evolution signals a profound paradigm shift in the stablecoin industry.

• From crypto on/off ramps to a global payments network: USDC’s $11.9 trillion on-chain volume in Q4 2025 indicates its primary use is surpassing crypto trading intermediaries, penetrating cross-border settlement, enterprise finance, and on-chain FX scenarios.
• From application to protocol layer: The launch of Arc blockchain is pivotal. If Arc mainnet successfully goes live in 2026 and supports large-scale payments and AI proxy activities, Circle will upgrade from an application-layer company (issuing USDC) to a protocol-layer company (operating a public chain), exponentially increasing its value capture ability.
• Regulatory dividends: U.S. stablecoin legislation provides administrative licenses for compliant issuers like Circle, effectively creating a policy moat that excludes non-compliant offshore competitors from mainstream finance.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Scenario 1: Optimistic Path (Base case)

Arc mainnet launches as scheduled, with sub-second finality and low fees, attracting traditional payments and DeFi applications. USDC circulation maintains a 40% CAGR, with payment network revenue significantly increasing, offsetting interest rate risks. Valuation rises toward that of mature payment giants like PayPal, realizing Bernstein’s $190 target.

Scenario 2: Neutral Path (Steady development)

Arc ecosystem develops slowly; core revenue still relies on USDC reserve interest. The Fed begins rate cuts, slowing profit growth. However, with regulatory advantages, Circle maintains a stable stablecoin market share. Stock price rises orderly but does not reach the aggressive 129% increase.

Scenario 3: Cautious Path (Risk exposure)

Post-regulatory redemptions, traditional banks launch credit-backed digital deposit tokens, replacing USDC. Arc faces technical or security issues, undermining market confidence. Valuation premiums evaporate, and stock reverts to typical fintech levels.

Conclusion

Bernstein’s “outperform” rating for Circle essentially bets on the rise of an internet-native financial infrastructure without bank accounts. The latest financial report not only confirms its scale growth but also highlights its potential to evolve into a full-stack digital dollar platform. Of course, from a reliance on interest margins to a self-sufficient predator, Circle still needs to prove itself through technological implementation and resilience against interest rate cycles. For industry observers, every step of Circle’s evolution offers a prime window into the future construction of the digital economy’s underlying infrastructure.