CITIC Securities: Zimbabwe suspends lithium ore exports, sector expected to surge

CryptocurrencySniper · 2026-02-28T02:22:08+00:00

The Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines issued a ban on lithium ore exports on February 25th, aiming to strengthen regulation and promote deep processing development. The policy is expected to lead to a short-term shortage of lithium carbonate supplies in China, thereby driving up lithium prices. It is recommended to focus on investment targets unaffected by the policy.

CryptocurrencySniper

2026-02-28 02:22:08

Abstract generation in progress

CITIC Securities Research Report points out that on February 25, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines announced a ban on lithium ore exports. This policy aims to strengthen mineral regulation and promote deep processing of mineral products. In 2025, 19% of China’s imported lithium concentrate comes from Zimbabwe. We expect Zimbabwe’s lithium resources will account for 12% of the global production in 2026. The export ban on lithium ores will lead to a short-term tightening of lithium carbonate supply in China, likely driving lithium prices significantly higher. It is recommended to focus on targets unaffected by export policies.

Full Text:

Lithium Industry | Zimbabwe Suspends Lithium Ore Exports, Sector Expected to Surge

On February 25, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines announced an immediate ban on all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports (including in-transit goods). Only mining companies holding mining rights and approved for mineral deep processing capacity will be authorized to export minerals. According to this regulation, exports of lithium sulfate from Zimbabwe remain unaffected. The Ministry stated that this policy aims to enhance mineral regulation and accountability, promote deep processing of mineral products, and maximize mineral value retention within Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe’s lithium ore export ban was foreshadowed earlier and may increase local industry concentration.

On June 10, 2025, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines announced a ban on lithium concentrate exports starting January 2027, requiring mining companies to establish lithium salt smelting capacity locally. We believe this move is to further urge leading mining companies to sign agreements and build factories locally, increasing industry added value. Before the completion of lithium salt smelting capacity, the government is likely to open export windows for top companies. Traders without proper mining licenses or small-scale miners will be excluded, raising export thresholds and industry concentration, which benefits Chinese mining companies operating in Zimbabwe.

By 2026, Zimbabwe’s lithium production is expected to account for about 12% of global output.

According to USGS, Zimbabwe’s lithium resources produced 28,000 metric tons of metal in 2025, roughly 10% of global lithium resources. The export destinations for Zimbabwe’s lithium ore and concentrates are mainly China. According to China’s General Administration of Customs, China’s total lithium ore imports in 2025 were 7.75 million tons (equivalent to 790,000 tons LCE), with 1.2 million tons imported from Zimbabwe (equivalent to 150,000 tons LCE), accounting for 19% of total imports. Based on expansion plans announced by Zimbabwean lithium companies, we estimate that Zimbabwe’s lithium ore production will reach 235,000 tons in 2026, about 12% of the global lithium resource output that year. Downstream demand is entering peak season. According to SMM, China’s lithium salt inventories remain low. We expect that before the export ban is lifted, China’s short-term lithium carbonate supply will tighten further, likely causing a significant rise in lithium prices.

Amid resource nationalism waves, strategic metals like lithium are likely to experience ongoing supply disruptions.

In recent years, resource-rich countries for metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and tin have implemented strict resource controls—Myanmar banned tin mining, the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed cobalt export bans, Indonesia sharply reduced nickel mining quotas, and Zimbabwe announced a lithium export ban. Against the backdrop of global resource nationalism and the narrative of U.S.-China competition over critical mineral rights, we anticipate that resource countries for strategic metals will continue to have sudden policy changes, causing supply disruptions.

Risk Factors:

Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban is less effective than expected
Global lithium resource supply exceeds expectations
Downstream battery demand underperforms
Energy storage battery demand is suppressed by high lithium prices

Investment Strategy:

On February 25, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines announced a ban on lithium ore exports. This policy aims to strengthen mineral regulation and promote deep processing, with potential future increases in export thresholds and industry concentration. In 2025, 19% of China’s imported lithium concentrate comes from Zimbabwe. We expect Zimbabwe’s lithium resources will account for 12% of global production in 2026. The export ban will tighten China’s short-term lithium carbonate supply, likely pushing prices higher. In the long term, supply disruptions caused by policy changes for strategic metals will become more frequent, potentially boosting product prices and company valuations. It is advisable to focus on targets unaffected by export policies.

(Source: Jiemian News)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.