Can HBAR Break Free From Its Falling Wedge Pattern? Technical Signs Mixed as March Begins

Hedera’s HBAR token started March under mixed technical signals after an intense correction that wiped out over 35% since mid-January. From November’s highs, losses now exceed 40%, yet the falling wedge pattern that has defined price action since late October remains structurally intact. This setup traditionally suggests weakening selling pressure—but recent data reveals a troubling divergence. While money flow indicators point to ongoing accumulation, volume metrics are flashing warning signs. The next few weeks will test whether HBAR can escape this falling wedge pattern or sink further.

The Falling Wedge Pattern: Why Structure Still Matters

The falling wedge pattern has been the defining technical formation for HBAR since October 2025. This pattern develops when prices make progressively lower highs and lower lows, with the range gradually narrowing. Crucially, a contracting falling wedge signals that selling momentum is weakening—a typically bullish setup when broken upward.

Even after the January crash, HBAR maintained this wedge structure. This is significant. It means buyers haven’t abandoned the asset entirely. Instead, the price consolidation within the wedge suggests accumulation during weakness. The measured target of this falling wedge pattern, if broken decisively above the $0.107 level, points to potential 52% upside—a meaningful prize for those betting on recovery.

However, a wedge pattern is only bullish if volume confirms the breakout. And that’s where HBAR’s current situation becomes complicated.

Money Flow Shows Accumulation, But Volume Paints a Cautionary Tale

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index has been flashing constructive signals since late December. Between December 30 and early February, while HBAR’s price trended lower, CMF trended higher—a classic bullish divergence indicating that large capital continued flowing in despite falling prices. The Money Flow Index (MFI) tells a similar story: dip buyers have remained active for over two months, with MFI recently curling higher near 41.

These indicators suggest accumulation is occurring inside the falling wedge pattern. Capital has not fully exited the market.

Yet the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator reveals a contradictory picture. OBV, which measures whether volume backs up price trends, has been weakening for months. On January 29, OBV broke below a descending trendline—a bearish divergence. This weakness in volume support has consistently capped rallies, preventing sustained upside moves.

Spot exchange flow data confirms this concern. From late October through early February, HBAR recorded 14 consecutive weeks of net outflows—more tokens leaving exchanges than entering. Only in the week of February 2 did this streak finally break, with $749,000 in net inflows recorded. While this marks a potential shift in sentiment, it also explains why price bounces have fizzled.

The Paradox: Active Buyers, Passive Volume Support

This creates a critical paradox for HBAR’s falling wedge pattern outlook. Money flow metrics suggest smart money is quietly buying. Yet volume data hints these accumulation efforts lack conviction or sufficient buying force.

The implication is clear: any rally faces structural headwinds. Without accelerating volume confirming the move, even the falling wedge pattern’s bullish breakout target may remain out of reach.

Critical Price Levels for March Direction

With mixed technicals, price levels now become the arbiter of direction. Current price sits at $0.10 as of early March.

Downside Risk: The key support zone sits near $0.076. A breakdown below this level signals sellers regaining control—exactly what weakening OBV has been hinting at. Below $0.076, downside targets emerge near $0.062 and ultimately $0.043.

Upside Scenario: For a constructive bounce within the falling wedge pattern, HBAR must first reclaim $0.090—resistance that has repeatedly capped rallies since January. A sustained break above $0.090 builds confidence. The major test comes at $0.107, where a decisive move above activates the falling wedge pattern’s breakout signal and its 52% measured target.

What Comes Next?

March will be critical for HBAR’s falling wedge pattern setup. Money flow indicators suggest patient capital stands ready to buy dips. But without volume acceleration, the falling wedge pattern—while structurally intact—may take months to resolve. The nearest catalyst appears to be whether HBAR can hold $0.076 while OBV simultaneously improves. Until then, the wedge narrows further, and the resolution date gets pushed back. Recovery remains possible, but the timeline remains uncertain.