#贵金原油价格飙升 Middle East Black Swan Attack: Oil and Gold Surge, Crypto Volatility, Global Asset Revaluation

The joint US-Israel airstrikes have triggered a turning point in the Middle East, with Iran launching a strong counterattack and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing immediate shocks to global energy supplies and financial markets. Shipping disruptions have pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, safe-haven funds are flooding into gold, and precious metals are soaring across the board. A wave of asset re-pricing driven by geopolitical conflict is sweeping the world.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil shipping trade. The blockade directly cuts off nearly 20 million barrels of oil transportation daily, causing the oil market to break free from supply and demand logic and become dominated by geopolitical risk. Brent crude opened up 13%, breaking through $85 per barrel. If the blockade persists in the short term, oil prices could surge to the $90-100 range, with extreme cases reaching $120. OPEC+’s slight production increase is insufficient to offset the supply gap. Rising shipping costs and risk-averse tanker停航 further amplify upward pressure on prices. Goldman Sachs estimates that the current oil market already prices in an $18 per barrel risk premium.

The precious metals market is experiencing a risk-averse frenzy, with international gold prices surpassing $5,400 per ounce to hit a new all-time high, while silver also rises significantly. Under the logic of turbulent times, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical panic form a triple support for gold. Short-term, gold prices are targeting the $5,600 level. Even if conflicts ease, precious metals are unlikely to see deep declines; safe-haven positions and inflation expectations will continue to underpin prices, making them a core safe haven for global funds.

The US-Iran situation is likely to remain limited in scope, avoiding full-scale war. The US and Israel focus on precise strikes against nuclear facilities and command centers, avoiding ground warfare falling into a quagmire. Iran responds with missile attacks and blockade of the strait as leverage, coordinating regional armed groups to deter further escalation, with room for negotiation on both sides. In the short term, the situation will oscillate between strikes, countermeasures, and mediation, with the status of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz becoming a key battleground. Intermittent blockades may become the norm.

The crypto market shows a divided trend. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are under short-term pressure due to decreased risk appetite, with some funds shifting into stablecoins for safety. However, in the long run, escalating geopolitical conflicts increase sovereign credit risks, and the decentralized nature of crypto assets will become more prominent. If the situation continues to escalate, the crypto market could emerge as an alternative safe haven, developing an independent trend.

The rise in oil and precious metals is directly linked to the intensity of the conflict and the duration of the Strait blockade. Short-term, impulsive surges seem inevitable. If the conflict quickly de-escalates, oil prices could fall back to the $65-70 range, with gold prices consolidating. If the blockade lasts over a month, oil and gold will enter a second round of sharp increases. The global market has entered a geopolitically driven mode, with increased volatility becoming the norm. Investors should closely monitor developments and beware of corrections after initial gains.

This Middle East upheaval not only rewrites asset prices but also reshapes the global energy landscape and financial order. In markets intertwined with panic and opportunity, understanding geopolitical logic is key to capturing the core trends.