Fed: Rate Unchanged, But Signal is Hawkish



The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% — a decision that matched market expectations.

• One Fed member voted for a 25 bps cut
• The regulator continues QE (bond purchases)
• Economy remains resilient, but inflation is still above target
• Uncertainty remains high (including due to geopolitics)

• GDP: upward revision (growth persists)
• PCE inflation: ~2.7% in 2026, return to 2% only by 2028
• Rate: market now expects fewer cuts
→ in 2026 only 1 move of –25 bps is possible

The Fed makes clear:
easing will be slow and limited.

For markets, this is a neutral-to-negative signal:
liquidity is in no rush to return → pressure on risk assets may persist.

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