The excitement about that Iran ceasefire agreement yesterday hasn’t even faded, and today the market has poured a bucket of cold water on it.

To be honest, the first thing that crossed my mind when I saw the news was: That’s it—$BTC is definitely going to drop.
As expected, on the news front, Trump directly came out with a tough statement, saying that until Iran fully complies with the agreement, all U.S. warships and aircraft will continue to stay around Iran, and he also stressed that if they don’t comply, there will be “fire”—and it would be unprecedented. Iran is even more hardline; the parliament speaker said directly that all three points of the agreement have been violated, and the negotiations are unreasonable.
The most critical part is the Strait of Hormuz. It’s said that oil tanker transport has already stopped, and the oil price $CL has rebounded to about $97. Think about it—how much oil does this strait move every day? If it shuts down, how could the market not panic?
The FOMC side also isn’t putting people at ease. The minutes clearly say that high oil prices could keep inflation sticking around for too long, and they haven’t ruled out further rate hikes. The Asia-Pacific stock markets have already started to pull back, and European futures are also falling.
As for the crypto market, Bitcoin has directly dropped below $71,000, and ETH, SOL, and XRP all tumbled across the board.
To be honest, what’s hardest about this kind of geopolitical-driven drop isn’t the drop itself—it’s the uncertainty. You don’t know what Trump will say in his next tweet, and you don’t know whether Iran will really escalate things.
But what’s interesting is that the news mentioned Iran is now requiring oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay fees using $BTC . Honestly, this move is pretty ironic: the U.S. sanctions Iran, and Iran turns around and collects tolls with cryptocurrency. So isn’t this, in a sense, a “legitimization” moment for Bitcoin?
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