Gold prices rebound and break through $4,700, with China Gold ETF (518850) opening gap higher and rising over 2%. Institutions: Short-term adjustments in precious metal prices do not change the medium- and long-term upward trend.

On the morning of April 1, gold prices rebounded strongly. In the early trading session, COMEX gold futures briefly surged to $4,751. They are now slightly pulling back, trading at around $4,715.

As for popular ETFs, as of 10:00, Gold ETF Huaxia (518850) jumped 2.5% on a gap-up, marking the third consecutive day of capital placement, with cumulative net inflows of 157.85 million. Gold stock ETF Huaxia (159562) rose 2.62%. Among its held stocks, Zijin Gold International rose 6.2%, Zijin Mining rose 5.65%, and shares such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, Chifeng Gold, and others moved up strongly.

In terms of the news, according to reports, U.S. President Trump said at the White House on the evening of March 31 that the U.S. would end its war with Iran within “two to three weeks,” and may reach an agreement with Iran before then.

Regarding Iran, according to CCTV News, on March 31 local time, Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran is willing to end the war, but only on the condition that its demands are met, especially guarantees that it will no longer be subjected to aggression.

CITIC Futures’ analysis indicates that the gold price rebound is mainly driven by two factors: first, the market is starting to price in the possibility of a marginal easing of tensions in the Middle East, and the re-inflation pressure formed earlier due to oil prices rising sharply has temporarily cooled; second, Powell said that long-term inflation expectations remain under control, and that policy is positioned as “wait and see,” which reduces the market’s concern that the Fed would tighten policy immediately due to supply shocks caused by the war. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields also correspondingly lowers the cost of holding gold. At present, gold has not returned to a framework dominated purely by safe-haven logic; price performance is still more influenced by the chain of “geopolitical disruptions—energy prices—Fed expectations.” Therefore, the short-term repair is supported, but if disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz flare up again and oil prices surge once more, gold may still face a cycle of ups and downs.

Nanhua Futures expects that in the second quarter, prices of precious metals will first stabilize and build a bottom, then gradually recover the earlier losses and rise again. Short-term adjustments will not change the medium- to long-term upward trend. However, the drivers still need further confirmation with data support, such as a rebound in expectations for Fed rate cuts, or an acceleration in central banks’ gold-buying pace. This timing window may appear in the latter half of the second quarter or in the third quarter. The main considerations are the easing of geopolitical conflicts, a decline in inflation, and the appointment of Waller as Fed Chair.