Hormuz "Battlefield Research Report" warns that five major risks may be underestimated by the market: too few super-large oil tankers navigating, severe damage to refining facilities

Ask AI · Analyst Dares to Investigate How to Disrupt the Perception of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Meiri Reporter: Lansuying Meiri Editor: Wang Jiaqí

Since the escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, the situation in the global energy lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz, has been constantly on the nerves of the world.

It is widely believed that this shipping route, carrying 20% of global oil transportation, is nearly in a state of “complete blockade.” However, on April 6, a field research report from Citrini Research, an independent thematic investment research institution based in New York, caused a stir in the global financial circle and overturned all stereotypical perceptions.

This document titled “Citrini Expedition Team Analyst No. 3’s Hormuz Strait Research Report” contains no complex modeling or simulations, only frontline records brought back at great risk by an analyst codenamed “No. 3.”

He carried $15k in cash and a set of sophisticated equipment including a Xiaomi phone with Leica 150x zoom camera, and boarded a small boat to infiltrate just 15 kilometers off the Iranian coast at Kumzhar village, ultimately uncovering the core truth: the Strait of Hormuz is not in a “full blockade,” but has formed a “regulated, priced” passage pattern, with Automatic Identification System (AIS) missing about 50% of actual passing ships daily under current conditions.

However, Citrini also pointed out five major potential risks in the report, such as if by the end of April, only 15 ships pass through the strait daily, the situation would be disastrous.

Armed with $15k, daring to enter the Strait of Hormuz on a GPS-free speedboat

This battlefield adventure began in an office in Manhattan, New York.

While most analysts rely on satellite images, anonymous intelligence, and AIS shipping data to infer the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Citrini Research team realized a core issue: “Almost no one truly knows what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Why not go see for yourself in the Strait of Hormuz?” This seemingly joking idea was eventually put into action.

Analyst No. 3 of Citrini Research set out from New York with a Pelican protective case filled with equipment. Inside the case were a Xiaomi phone equipped with a Leica 150x zoom camera (a souvenir from their visit to a Chinese robotics factory), an emergency radio beacon, $15k in cash, and a gimbal with a microphone set.

The real challenge began the moment he entered Oman. He was forced to sign a strict pledge forbidding photography, journalism, or information collection. Fortunately, the gimbal, recording devices, and sunglasses hidden inside the protective case escaped security checks.

Despite warnings from insiders urging him to go home, he remained undeterred. He started disguising himself as a tourist, oil trader, or real estate investor, trying to contact shipping companies but repeatedly hitting walls. Eventually, he found a way through a dolphin sightseeing company: “Iran’s Revolutionary Guard can stop oil tankers, but cannot deter dolphins.” However, this seemingly absurd plan was ultimately canceled.

The turning point came with an encounter with an Omani captain. With a stack of cash, he met Captain Hamid of Oman, who told him a speedboat would be ready the next day.

That night, two officers from a CIA-like agency in the Gulf, CID (Criminal Investigation Department), came looking for him. They tracked him based on Citrini’s tweets. During a night of search and interrogation, CID officers hinted he was a foreign spy, even fabricating that he held an Iraqi passport. In the end, they concluded he was a “fool,” not a spy, but issued a deadly warning: “We know your plan. Cancel it. Do not go.”

But in the end, he still boarded Captain Hamid’s forty-year-old speedboat, which had no GPS and was tied with a broken radio. Relying on Captain Hamid’s familiarity with the waters, they navigated in international waters. Overhead, Iranian Shahid drones circled, and in the distance, armed Revolutionary Guard patrol boats. His task was to manually count the “ghost ships” that had turned off AIS.

Finally, just 15 kilometers off the Iranian coast at Kumzhar village, he uncovered some truths unknown to the outside world. The villagers spoke a mixed dialect of Portuguese, Persian, and Arabic, with half of the families having relatives in Iran’s important port of Bandar Abbas, traveling back and forth as easily as within Oman. During conversations, fishermen revealed truths that satellite data could not capture: 4 to 5 oil tankers quietly pass each day after turning off AIS, and drone attacks are far more frequent than imagined.

Breaking the external perception: four major truths

Contrary to the traditional binary narrative of “Is the Strait Closed or Not,” the on-site investigation by “No. 3” analyst revealed a more complex and impactful reality.

● Escalating conflict and “rising shipping volume” are “synchronized”

According to “No. 3” analyst’s observations, “AIS systems currently miss about 50% of actual ships passing daily.” On April 2, at least 15 ships passed. The next day, the number increased, not dramatically but more. Compared to over 100 ships daily before the conflict, this is still insignificant, but they expect the trend to continue this way. The strait’s traffic will rebound as the conflict persists.

According to residents along the strait, about two weeks before their arrival, the Qeshm-Larak route saw about 2 to 5 ships passing daily.

“In about a week, we are likely to see both escalation of the conflict and an increase in strait traffic. The opening or closing of the strait does not solely depend on whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates.” the report states.

Media reports on April 6 indicated that during the weekend (April 4-5), 21 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. As more countries and Iran seem to have reached safe passage arrangements, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has risen to the highest level since the start of the Iran conflict.

● Iran’s “toll station” officially operational

Iran has established an effective checkpoint in the Strait of Hormuz, guiding all approved ships through the channel between Qeshm Island and Larak Island, and charging tolls. Since mid-March, no ships have used the traditional shipping routes.

Payment methods include cash, cryptocurrencies, or diplomatic channels such as unfreezing Iranian assets abroad.

Iran enforces toll collection via drones and satellite imagery. They conduct strict checks to verify whether ships secretly align with the US, examine ownership structures and shareholder backgrounds, and communicate with crew members.

However, simply letting ships exit the strait is not enough to make a real impact; ships must be able to return loaded. The current situation has not turned into a crisis because ships on the friendly or neutral list can return loaded, keeping bulk commodity transportation smooth.

● The gradual reopening of the strait seems almost certain

On March 26, Iran allowed five countries to pass: China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan. Within a week, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, France, and Japan also gained passage rights.

According to Citrini, the list of approved countries will continue to grow, and they are highly confident that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen.

However, all contacts of “No. 3” analyst agree: during ongoing conflict, the US and US-allied ships will find it difficult to pass through the strait. The ultimate scenarios can be summarized as two: either the US destroys Iran completely, stripping it of sovereignty, and the strait reopens under US security guarantees; or the conflict drags on, costly and unpopular, with Iran somehow achieving its demands—reopening the strait under Iranian control.

Meanwhile, the least resistant path for all countries except the US is to reach an agreement with Iran and maintain smooth shipping.

● Shipping volume may recover to 50% of pre-conflict levels in 4 to 6 weeks

The report states, “We are likely to see shipping volumes recover to 50% of pre-conflict levels within the next 4 to 6 weeks.” Citrini expects that as shipping gradually resumes, crude oil prices will at least decline in the near term.

The institution believes that the impact of this conflict on energy markets could last longer, with long-term oil price risk premiums becoming permanent.

Five overlooked risks

The report also highlights five major risks that the market may face next:

● “No. 3” analyst observed that currently, very few Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) pass through the strait. In fact, ships larger than Aframax (usually 80k to 120k tons) are rare. If only liquefied petroleum gas carriers and small oil ships pass in the future, the global economy will still face severe tests.

● From the research, the damage to refining and natural gas processing facilities is quite serious and severely underestimated. Additionally, the current refined oil market is far more tense than the crude oil market.

● Currently, global commercial oil inventories are being depleted at about 10.6 million barrels per day. The Habshan–Fujairah pipeline has been forced to shut down twice. Even considering rerouted pipelines, remaining strait traffic, strategic reserves releases, sanctions on oil imports, and Middle Eastern oil stockpiles, if by the end of April only 15 ships pass daily, the situation will be disastrous.

● If the US demands unconditional full opening of the strait, cancels tolls, and acts to prevent Iran from collecting tolls, shipping will come to a complete halt. If such actions are delayed more than 3-4 weeks, the world faces a huge disaster.

● If the strait’s shipping volume in late April drops back to the actual closure level rather than continuing to rise, global stock markets could plummet by about 15%–20%.

( Note: All images in the article are from Citrini Research report.

Disclaimer: The content and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Verify before use. Operate at your own risk.

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