I just reviewed the points that Adam Back, the pioneering Bitcoin architect mentioned in the original white paper, shared at the iConnections conference in Miami Beach. And honestly, what he's saying about this cycle makes a lot of sense.

For those who don’t follow, Adam Back is the CEO of Blockstream and one of the earliest cypherpunks in Bitcoin’s history. He offered an interesting perspective: the recent drop in BTC isn’t necessarily a sign that something broke, but rather a pattern that repeats every four years. According to him, some traders are operating precisely based on this historical dynamic instead of reacting to fundamentals.

What’s curious is that we have a more favorable political environment in the US now, spot Bitcoin ETFs are already approved, but still Bitcoin has fallen significantly over the past year. Meanwhile, gold and silver hit all-time highs. The capital that should be protecting against inflation seems to have preferred traditional metals for now.

Adam Back pointed out something very relevant about the structure of Bitcoin holders. ETF investors tend to be more loyal, while retail traders usually heavily allocate during rallies and hold little during dips. Institutions can rebalance their portfolios better, but we’re still in the early stages of institutional adoption.

Adam Back’s view is that the volatility we see now is comparable to what Amazon faced in its early days, when the market was still full of uncertainty. As more institutional capital, companies, and sovereigns gain exposure, he believes fluctuations should start to moderate. It won’t disappear, but it might become closer to gold’s patterns.

He also mentioned that Bitcoin is still about 10 to 15 times smaller than gold in market capitalization, which suggests plenty of room for growth if it continues gaining share as a store of value. And despite short-term volatility, Adam Back emphasizes that Bitcoin’s long-term case remains intact. Bitcoin as an asset class has delivered the best annualized returns over the past decade.

For Adam Back, volatility doesn’t contradict Bitcoin’s thesis; it’s just part of the adoption phase we’re in. It makes sense when you consider there’s still a lot of room for institutional growth and that the rapid adoption curve naturally brings fluctuations.