The Daily, which estimates the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates as lower than the probability of it lowering or maintaining a stable level, outlined two scenarios:

"Scenario one: if the war with Iran is quickly resolved, a ceasefire is extended, oil prices fall, and companies and consumers begin to see a decrease in natural gas and other energy prices, we will return to our previous inflation reduction trajectory. This will preserve the possibility of lowering interest rates."
The second scenario: if supply disruptions of oil due to the war continue even after it ends, this could sustain high inflation levels longer than the Fed anticipates.
In this case, we will wait until we are sure we are doing everything correctly.