Recently, I've been paying attention to a quite interesting phenomenon. The situation at the Strait of Hormuz is becoming increasingly tense, and this is the world's most important energy transportation route, shipping one-fifth of the world's oil daily. If it were completely blocked, how serious would the consequences be?

Imagine if this passage were truly cut off, reducing daily oil supply by over 20 million barrels, and oil prices breaking $100 is just a matter of time. And this isn't driven by sentiment, but a pure physical supply gap. It would directly trigger global inflation expectations, and central banks around the world might halt their rate-cutting cycles or even be forced to maintain high interest rates. For the crypto market, tightening liquidity has never been a good sign.

Interestingly, major institutions are now seriously contemplating this issue. JP Morgan bluntly states that the probability of a global recession has exceeded 35%, and recommends positioning defensively. Goldman Sachs is more direct, focusing on inflation-hedging tools like commodity futures and TIPS. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio emphasizes the diversification value of gold—not because it always rises, but because its correlation with most financial assets is very low, making it a true hedge.

What’s fascinating is that when I see old viewpoints from Buffett being revisited in discussions, I realize how anxious the market really is. He said back in 2014 during the Crimea crisis that during wartime, the worst thing to do is hoard cash because currency will depreciate. That logic still holds today. But Buffett’s own political stance has always been pragmatic; he cares about long-term business value rather than short-term political swings. This kind of rationality is especially precious amid current panic.

Regarding Bitcoin, it often behaves like a high-volatility tech stock rather than a safe haven during early stages of geopolitical crises. Leverage liquidations, stablecoin withdrawals, exchange liquidity drying up—these can all cause short-term crashes. If the conflict drags on for more than two months, global stock markets could face a 15-20% correction, and BTC would find it hard to remain unaffected. But in the long run, if it evolves into full-scale confrontation, the role of crypto assets as cross-border value transfer tools will be thoroughly reassessed.

The current question is no longer "bull market or bear market," but "who can still trade and settle freely." When that happens, the pricing logic of physical assets, energy, and rare metals will be fundamentally rewritten. Strategic assets like chips, satellite communications, and data centers will be directly incorporated into national frameworks.

It’s a bit heavy, but this is what major institutional investors are privately discussing now. The wisest approach might be to prepare in advance rather than wait for things to actually happen.