Does the conviction of Trump in the impeachment trial mean he cannot run for office?

Source: Bloomberg; BBC; Decrypt

Compilation and editing: Tao Zhu, Golden Finance

Donald Trump has been convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This injects an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Trump has experienced two impeachments and countless other scandals, but still leads Biden in most opinion polls.

1. Is Trump’s conviction an opportunity for Biden?

Both party’s presidential campaign strategists agree that the guilty verdict has provided Biden with a new opportunity. Biden’s lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.

Joe Biden’s campaign communications director, Michael Taylor, said in a statement on Thursday that this result shows that “no one is above the law,” and that Trump “has always wrongly believed that he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain.” But Biden also acknowledged that the legal system alone cannot prevent Trump from retaking the White House in November.

Biden said in a fundraising campaign, ‘There is only one way to stop Donald Trump from entering the White House: through the ballot box.’

Trump was convicted of a serious crime, which provides Biden with an opportunity to refocus voters’ attention on Trump’s actions and shake up the election situation.

“It would be a dereliction of duty not to rely solely on the verdict,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and veteran of Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “I want President Biden to make a big speech and get Democratic officials to stir up the nation and do everything possible to make the campaign a referendum on Trump.”

Second, the story of Trump and adult actresses

American porn actress Stormy Daniels said she and Mr. Trump had an affair since 2006 and that he has tried to keep the matter low-key ever since.

Daniels is her stage name, her real name is Stephanie Clifford, born in Louisiana in 1979. Before she started directing and writing in 2004, she was an adult film actress. Daniels claims that she had a sexual encounter with Trump at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament at Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006. Trump had already been married to Melania Trump in 2005.

Trump strongly denies having an affair with Daniels.

Because of concerns for his family’s safety, Daniels accepted a “hush payment” from Trump’s personal lawyer.

Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen also confirmed that he privately paid Daniels $130,000.

Daniels pointed out that she signed the so-called “hush agreement” document with Trump’s lawyer Cohen shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so legally it is considered invalid.

3. Will voter attitudes change?

Trump is trying to use this ruling to motivate his die-hard supporters, most of whom believe his claim that the lawsuit is politically motivated and aims to prevent him from taking power.

“The real verdict will be made on Nov. 5 by the people, who know what’s going on here,” Trump said in a brief comment to reporters outside the courtroom.

Trump also used a similar strategy last year, leveraging the anger of Republicans towards his impeachment to force his primary opponents to drop out of the race. However, it is still unclear whether this will be effective in the general election.

James Carville, senior strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, said that the most important factor in a guilty verdict is that it is made by a fair jury - which may resonate with undecided voters who often ignore party messengers.

“Trump can’t win with his people alone,” Cavill said. “And it’s definitely going to be a hindrance to everybody else.”

Investigations conducted prior to the verdict showed that Trump would indeed pay a price for the jury’s conclusion. The jury believed that Trump deliberately falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign and concealed his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.

A May 23 Marquette Law School poll of registered voters found that Biden would have a 4-point lead in a national head-to-head showdown with Trump if found “guilty,” and 6 percentage points if “not guilty.”

Whether the election will change may depend more on Biden than Trump. At least some strategists from both parties expect that Trump’s newly acquired felon status will have a lasting impact - provided that Biden and his campaign team can emphasize this crime to those who are mostly indifferent to national affairs.

Trump’s campaign team also faces some practical problems, as they have always hoped to increase travel to battlefield states without being restricted by court schedules. His verdict is scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Evidence of internal disputes has surfaced since the verdict was announced, with Trump’s agents clashing with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, the current Republican candidate in the state’s U.S. Senate race, on social media after Hogan urged Americans to “respect the verdict and the legal process.”

The title “felon” will upset voters with low leanings and little information, and they are the reason Trump is currently in the lead.

Despite the Trump campaign team publicly claiming not to care about the trial, Trump has privately told allies and advisors that he does not want to be a felon.

IV. Trump’s response

Prosecutors allege that Trump instructed Cohen before the 2016 election to pay adult movie star Stormie Daniels $130,000 to stop her from going public what she said was sexual contact between them. Prosecutors argue that Mr. Trump repaid Mr. Cohen for hush money and that several payments for “legal services” were recorded in the company’s books. Trump’s team claims that the money was actually used for legal work.

Trump denied all the charges, saying the trial was “rigged.”

Trump also called on donors to donate to his struggling presidential campaign.

“They searched my home, arrested me, took pictures of me, and now they just convicted me!” A fundraising appeal reads. “Before I wrap up today, I’m appealing for k million patriots who support Trump to donate.”

In recent weeks, Trump’s fundraising campaign has been long victorious, including $76 million raised in April, $25 million long more than Biden raised that month. He also has the backing of billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwartzman, two of the Republican Party’s biggest donors. Trump also raised $40 million in the Texas campaign, mostly from oil and gas industry executives, including Harold Hamm, chairman of Continental Resources.

5. Reaction of the Traditional Financial and Cryptocurrency Markets

The verdict on Trump has not yet affected Wall Street.

From 24-hour currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (excluding Trump Media & Technology Group stocks) remained relatively stable after a New York jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts.

However, for traders, the question now is how this decision will impact the market, which has already begun preparing for the 2024 U.S. presidential election - in which Trump is almost certain to compete against President Joe Biden.

Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni said, “The stock market has historically been unaffected by domestic political turmoil. However, after the Trump verdict, the political atmosphere is obviously going to be more turbulent, which could exacerbate stock market fluctuations.”

Compared to the stable performance of TradFi assets, encryption assets clearly exhibit more intense fluctuations.

The price of TRUMP plummeted from about $15 before the verdict to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, a drop of nearly 25% in just over an hour.

Trump concept coins with small market cap have also plummeted significantly. MAGA Hat (MAGA) dropped 16% within an hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) dropped 16% within an hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) dropped 22% within an hour.

Meme coin inspired by Joe Biden, the main competitor of Trump and the current President of the United States, has pumped after the verdict. The largest meme coin, Jeo Boden (BODEN), has increased by 12% within one hour.

Six, other issues worth following

What will happen after Trump is convicted?

The next step will be Judge Juan Mershon’s sentencing, scheduled for July 11. This is just a few days before the Republican National Convention on July 15, where the Republican Party will officially nominate Trump as the presidential candidate for the November 5 election. Mershon stated that Trump can remain at large until the sentencing.

Defendants convicted of serious crimes are usually sentenced to imprisonment, but the law does not stipulate that they must serve a sentence. Especially since the former president is 77 years old, a first-time offender with no criminal record, it is necessary to handle his case leniently. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.

2. How long might Trump go to jail?

Each charge is a class E felony, with a sentence of 1.5 to 4 years. Because Trump has been convicted of multiple charges, he can be sentenced to multiple charges and serve them simultaneously, meaning the former president will serve all sentences at the same time.

3. Can Trump appeal?

Yes, he immediately objected to the verdict, stating that the battle is far from over. But he can only appeal to the New York State after the verdict.

Trump may eventually ask the US Supreme Court to intervene.

4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?

It is not yet clear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current or former presidents, has met with federal, state, and local officials to discuss the possibility of Trump going to prison.

If Trump is sentenced to one year or less imprisonment, he may serve his sentence at Rikers Island Prison in New York, where there are seven prisons. Allen Weisselberg, the former CFO of the Trump Organization, who is 76 years old, recently admitted to perjury and is currently serving a five-month sentence in the medical department of the prison.

5. Does Trump’s conviction mean he cannot run for re-election?

Trump can still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has very few requirements for eligibility for public office, including no restrictions on character or criminal records.

6. How will this ruling affect the 2024 election?

It is not yet clear how his conviction will affect the election results. But if Trump wins, the United States will have its first convicted felon as head of state, which is not uncommon in other parts of the world. Trump compares himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

7. If Trump is re-elected, can he pardon himself?

If Trump is re-elected, in theory, he can instruct the Department of Justice to dismiss these cases.

Blockchain prediction market Polymarket data shows that traders still expect Trump to defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump still leads by a wide margin - with a 56% chance of winning, compared to Biden’s 38%.