# 美联储

🔥【20:30 Major Warning】Core PCE Incoming Tonight, Is the Fed About to Change Course?
Markets expect January's core PCE year-over-year rate to rise moderately, but this data might be hiding a "hidden alarm"! What's even more intriguing is that core PCE has rarely surged above CPI, and this shift in inflation structure is worth pondering carefully.
Will rate-cut expectations be put back on the grill? Tonight's market action is destined to be turbulent, with volatility returning—make sure to manage risk and don't get carried away.
That said, during these macro data windows, capital typically flow

The Federal Reserve has a 97.3% probability of not cutting interest rates｜Impact on the crypto market (summary points)
According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 2.7%, with a 97.3% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 12.5%, with an 87.3% chance of no change, and a 0.3% chance of a total 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 30.7%.
1. Key Conclusions
Short-term: Neutral to stable, no clear bearish signals; medium-t