Bitcoin and Ethereum Structure Analysis: The Bull Trap Endgame Is Here, Short Positions Require Precision!

I. Daily + Weekly Structure Core Insights

Bitcoin (BTC)

- Daily: Surface appearance of "small consecutive bullish candles + bullish moving average alignment" is an illusion. MACD red columns continue shrinking, RSI surged to 74.1 overbought zone. After the 94,400 USD high, repeated rejections and upper wicks reveal selling pressure. The 93,000-95,000 USD range contains dense December trapped positions. Breakthrough lacks volume support—pure "feint."
- Weekly: Appears to hold above EMA7, but hasn't broken through 98,637 USD weekly TBO resistance. Capital continuously flows toward altcoins, BTC dominance dropped below 59%, upside momentum severely diverted. The so-called "W-bottom breakout" is actually a bull trap.

Ethereum (ETH)

- Daily: Following BTC but weakness is obvious. Heavy selling pressure in 3,250-3,300 USD range. Multiple attempts to break 3,307 USD failed. Volume declines and top divergence signals appear. Moving average support looks solid but crumbles on contact.
- Weekly: Despite Blob parameter update tailwinds, 3,435 USD weekly resistance remains distant. Current movement completely depends on BTC, lacking independent upside momentum. High-level consolidation is merely "passive life support."

II. Clear Viewpoint: Bull Trap Endgame, Short Positions Without Blindness!

1. Bull Trap Evidence: 128,000 liquidations in 24 hours, 288 million USD long liquidations. Whales inflated prices using "institutional ETF inflow" narrative, actually dumping massively at 94,000+ and 3,300+ levels. Retail accumulation traces are evident. Meme coins surged 300%—essentially last-round speculation when capital has nowhere to go, historically a pre-reversal signal.

2. Shorting Core Logic: BTC 4-hour top divergence + ETH inverted hammer. Technical pullback demand can no longer be suppressed. 90,000 and 3,200 USD are critical watersheds. Once breached, cascading stop-losses trigger, targeting 91,500 USD CME gap and 3,150 USD support. Post-breakdown, direct focus on 90,000 and 3,000 USD psychological levels.

3. Risk Bottom Line Warning: Bull trap endgame exhibits extreme volatility—don't blindly chase shorts! Must wait for "volume breakdown below support" confirmation signal. Set stop-loss above prior highs (94,400 USD, 3,307 USD). Avoid being swept out by final "spoofing bull traps" from whales. Reversal profitability core is "precision ambush," not "gambler-style bandwagon."

III. Sages' Practical Operational Advice

Current market is the classic script of "whales harvesting retail." Appears bullish momentum strong, actually a "spent force." Real reversal opportunities lie in "short positions after bull trap breakdown," not chasing highs and catching tops! Remember: Enter only when support breaks, lock stops tight, scale profits gradually—this is cryptocurrency reversal's underlying logic.

#ETH走势分析