【Hashio Lian News | Macro Flash】

US "Temporary Release" of Iranian Oil for 30 Days, Trump Mentions Orderly War Ending: Stabilizing Oil Prices or US Debt?

According to the US Treasury Department, the United States has approved a limited 30-day authorization allowing Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already in transit to complete delivery and sales, expected to release approximately 140 million barrels of supply to global markets. From a macro perspective, this appears more like an emergency hedging operation targeting oil prices and inflation.

I. Risk Control
This authorization has clear restrictions:
• Limited to already-loaded oil
• Time window of only 30 days
• No involvement in new exports or long-term policy adjustments

This means the US has not changed its sanctions framework against Iran, but rather temporarily releases inventory to stabilize market expectations amid escalating Middle East tensions.

II. Core Logic: Oil Price → Inflation → Interest Rate → US Debt
The true mainline of current global macro conditions is not the Middle East itself, but rather the following chain:
Oil price rise → Inflation rebound → Fed unable to cut rates → US debt interest rates remain elevated → Fiscal pressure intensifies

In other words:
👉 What the US really needs to stabilize is not the Middle East, but inflation and interest rate paths
If oil prices break through $100 due to geopolitical conflicts, it will directly disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting pace, further worsening the already elevated US debt interest burden.

III. Why Act Now?
Recent Middle East situation carries escalation risks:
• Red Sea shipping disruptions
• Potential Strait of Hormuz threats
• Iran-Israel conflict spillover risks

Against this backdrop, the US chose to pre-release supply to suppress oil price expectations rather than passively respond afterward.
This is a typical "expectations management."

IV. Market Impact
Short-term:
Oil price gains are suppressed (bearish for crude)
Inflation expectations ease (bullish for risk assets)
Crypto market sentiment slightly positive
Medium-term key variables:
• If conflict remains controllable → Risk assets continue rebound
• If energy facilities are attacked → Oil prices surge → Macro liquidity tightens
• If Strait of Hormuz is blocked → Global liquidity shock (systemic risk)

V. Hashio Lian News View
This is a typical macro-regulation action by the United States.
Under the current cycle:
👉 Oil prices are the Fed's "shadow interest rate"
👉 While interest rates are the lifeline of the US debt system

The US allowing Iranian oil to enter the market in the short term essentially buys itself time.
This forced policy is to avoid the financial system coming under pressure prematurely.
What the US is releasing is not Iranian oil, but a "liquidity valve" for inflation hedging.