Last night, the crypto market experienced a significant fluctuation. Bitcoin failed to hold the $87,000 level, and mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, SOL, XRP, and others responded with declines, generally ranging between 3% and 5%. Smaller and mid-cap coins plunged even more sharply, with some projects being cut in half. According to statistics, over 140,000 investors faced margin calls in this wave, with nearly 270 million dollars in funds evaporating instantly. The logic behind this sharp drop is worth analyzing. On one hand, mainstream coins have been sideways for a long time, and retail investors hoped for a rebound toward the end of the year, only to be met with an unexpected plunge. Ethereum broke below the critical support level of $3,000, shattering many investors' psychological defenses. On the other hand, the shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy signals acted as a trigger. The latest data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates further in January next year has dropped to only 24.4%. Powell’s hawkish stance directly extinguished market hopes for easing, prompting institutional funds to reverse and short aggressively, strategically targeting retail traders’ positions. In this situation, investors who increased their positions during the sideways period find themselves in the most awkward position, with leverage amplifying the risks. When the tide recedes, it becomes clear who is swimming裸—currently, the rebound space is limited, and we should instead be vigilant about whether this is a short-term correction or the start of a larger bear market. What are your thoughts on this wave of market movement? How are your current positions?

#加密生态动态追踪 The Bank of Japan confirmed a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19, but the three major crashes of $BTC are not solely due to this. Looking back at history makes it clear—March 2024 saw a 27% drop, July a 30% drop, and January 2025 a 31% drop. It seems like rate hikes are the mastermind behind these crashes, but in reality, each one is triggered by multiple bearish factors converging. Last week, market participants already sensed the risk, and $BTC reacted with a 7% decline in advance, but the underlying logic is far more complex than it appears on the surface. The crash in January? A double impact from Trump’s inauguration and tariff expectations. July? Yen arbitrage trading faced a wave of liquidations, forcing large funds to exit. Going further back to March, $BTC hit a new all-time high and then experienced a correction, compounded by escalating Middle East tensions. While rate hikes by central banks do exert pressure, focusing solely on this logic can easily lead to market traps. The current market situation is like this—single perspectives often miss the bigger picture, with both bulls and bears waiting for the right moment to buy the dip or chase the fall, risking getting caught in traps. $ETH and $XRP are also fluctuating amid this turbulence, and the key is to identify where the true driving forces lie.