In the past few days, I've seen a bunch of people explaining market rises and falls by tying together ETF net inflows, stablecoin supply changes, and off-exchange capital movements, almost like a formula. To put it simply, correlation does not equal causation, especially on-chain where those "new stablecoins" are often just moving, changing chains, switching custody wallets, or temporarily shifting for market making/hedging, which isn't directly related to real money chasing gains. The same goes for ETFs—an inflow doesn't mean immediate spot purchase; it could be hedging elsewhere first, and the process can drag on for a long time. Recently, there's also a tendency to overlay US stock risk appetite and crypto market movements, which I see too, but what I care more about is: if tomorrow there's a liquidation cascade or a slight de-pegging of stablecoins, who will be forced to sell, and where will the liquidity break? Anyway, I prefer to leave the "explanation" for after the fact and write the contingency plans upfront—survive first, then analyze.