Crypto界网 reports that Kalshi's prediction of the probability of Bitcoin falling below $50k in 2026 has risen to 40%.


On May 23, after Bitcoin's price dropped below $75,000, market sentiment turned bearish.
Although Bitcoin rebounded to $82,000 earlier this month, the current trading price is $75,410, and the ETF market has also seen continued withdrawals by institutional investors, resulting in the highest weekly outflow from Bitcoin ETFs since January over the past week.
KALSHI6.79%
BTC1.26%
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GateUser-9ccf7051
· 6h ago
It's still early in 2026; the crypto market changes daily. This prediction is just for reference.
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HotAirBalloonCrossingMountains
· 6h ago
Institution withdraws funding + bearish forecast, a double kill combo, let's observe and wait in the short term.
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GateUser-047cb6fc
· 6h ago
When the bearish sentiment is strong, I actually want to open a position, but this time the institutions are also running, so it's a bit uncertain.
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PatchNotes
· 6h ago
Does a 40% probability actually mean there's a 60% chance it won't break down? Think about it in reverse.
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ACalmnessWithAHintOfPomelo
· 6h ago
ETF weekly outflows hit a record, this data is more worth watching than the price itself
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ChillBlock
· 6h ago
Is Kalshi's prediction model accurate? I'm curious about their previous hit rate for Bitcoin.
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DaoSidekick
· 7h ago
Falling below 50k means a 50% drop followed by another 50% drop. Has this script already played out in 2022 and is coming back again?
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GateUser-f78f1f3e
· 7h ago
The prediction market is about betting on expectations; by that time, the situation might have already changed.
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GateUser-a365d15f
· 7h ago
The bearish candle on May 23rd was indeed ugly; the technical outlook has already deteriorated.
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SandwichBlockSam
· 7h ago
Whether 75k can hold or not depends on this week first; if institutions flow back, the probability estimate will be lowered.
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