Combining Coinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q1 2026 report and market reality prices, a comprehensive analysis of BTC, ETH, and institutional investor sentiment, providing investors with a 2026 Q1 crypto trend guide.
Report background and data sources
The report “Charting Crypto: Q1 2026,” released in collaboration between Coinbase Institutional and the on-chain data analytics platform Glassnode, focuses on key trends and structural changes in the crypto market at the beginning of the first quarter of 2026. This report integrates on-chain metrics, derivatives market data, and institutional quarterly surveys to provide market participants with deep insights, helping to interpret the current market situation and potential risks.
The profound implications of structural changes in the market
The report indicates that the number of liquidation events in the fourth quarter of 2025 has significantly reduced high leverage positions in the market, which is particularly evident in the shifts within the derivatives market. The open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased, while the open interest in Bitcoin options has surpassed that of perpetual contracts, reflecting that investors are more inclined to adopt options structures with defined risks to hedge against potential downside risks. This shift from high-risk speculation to a preference for risk management contributes to the overall resilience of the market.
On-chain indicators and price range interpretation
The price of Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of $85,000 to $95,000, significantly retreating from its historical high, and this range is considered by most institutions as an undervalued area. On-chain data shows that within this range, some long-term holders and institutions are choosing to hold or accumulate on dips, which provides some support for the price.
Institution vs Retail: Comparison of Sentiment and Holding Strategies
The survey results show that approximately 71% of institutional investors believe BTC is undervalued, while about **60% of retail investors share a similar view. This attitude difference reflects that during market downturns, institutional investors are more inclined to use price adjustments to strengthen their positions, while retail investors are more easily influenced by short-term fluctuations.
ETH Cycle Retreat and Future Drivers
In terms of Ethereum, the predictive ability of traditional cycle indicators is diminishing. The report indicates that its future price is more likely to be influenced by overall liquidity conditions and the allocation behavior of market participants rather than driven by cyclical nodes. This suggests that investors need to pay attention to both macro and network-level dynamics when evaluating ETH.
Risk Warning and Investment Logic Reconstruction
Despite the market showing signs of structural improvement, it is still necessary to be wary of external factors such as macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical tensions that may exert pressure on market sentiment and prices. Furthermore, due to the unique high volatility of the crypto market, investment logic should not rely solely on a single indicator, but rather integrate on-chain behavior, characteristics of the derivatives market, and risk management strategies.
Conclusion: Key Points of Logic and Action
The crypto market in the first quarter of 2026 is entering a more mature and structurally clearer phase, with institutions making more arrangements in undervalued price zones, while the market is gradually emerging from an overly leveraged state. For investors, grasping the trends after structural adjustments, understanding the significance of on-chain and derivative indicators, and formulating strategies under the premise of controllable risk will be important topics in the coming quarters.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
