The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin have left people confused, but data and cycles indicate that the bull run has not concluded. This article explains the reasons based on long-term trends, capital distribution, and market structure.
Reviewing the current market status
As of early November, the Bitcoin price has stabilized around $108,000. Although there has been a slight pullback from previous highs, the overall trend remains in a high-level fluctuation. On-chain data shows that the daily average transaction volume and network activity remain at healthy levels, indicating that the market has not lost momentum.
Cycle and Structure: The bull run is still in the middle stage.
Looking back at the market after previous halvings, the real peak usually occurs about 12 months after the halving. Currently, there is only about half a year until the 2024 halving, so based on cyclical patterns, the bull run is not yet complete. Technically, Bitcoin is still within an upward trend channel, with both highs and lows gradually rising. This indicates that buying pressure remains strong.
Capital flow reveals market confidence
On-chain data shows that the balance of Bitcoin held by exchanges continues to decline, indicating that most holders choose to hold their coins for the long term. At the same time, the inflow of stablecoins (USDT, USDC) has risen, suggesting that new buying power is preparing to enter the market. Additionally, with increased inflows into institutional investment products (such as ETFs), a solid market support has been formed.
Common Mistakes for Beginners
Many beginners are prone to the illusion that the “bull run is over” during a consolidation period. This usually stems from emotional fluctuations rather than data assessment. Remember:
- A bull run is not a continuous rise, but rather “rise → adjustment → rise again”;
- The real bear market signal is a trend reversal and long-term capital outflow, which has not yet occurred.
Looking Ahead: The Next Phase
In the short term, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 100,000–110,000 USD; the medium-term target can be aimed at 130,000–140,000 USD. If the macro environment remains loose and institutional demand increases, the main upward wave in the later stages of the bull run is still worth looking forward to.
Summary
The Bitcoin bull run is far from over. Adjustments are not a bad thing; they are a preparation period for a new round of rises. For newcomers, the most important thing is not to be scared off by short-term fluctuations and to learn to judge trends from data and structure. As long as the underlying logic is not broken, time will ultimately validate the strength of this crypto cycle.
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
