Iranian President unusually apologizes for "indiscriminate attacks on Middle Eastern neighboring countries"—what's the underlying motive?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi apologized on March 7 in a televised speech to neighboring Middle Eastern countries attacked by Iran. This is extremely rare in Iran’s political history. BBC analysis suggests three possible motivations behind this move: de-escalating regional tensions, stabilizing internal politics to buy time for leadership transition, and projecting a pragmatic image to signal negotiations to the West.
(Background: Trump stated that Iran would only cease hostilities if it “unconditionally surrenders”! Middle East conflict escalates, oil and dollar soar, Bitcoin drops to $68,000)
(Additional context: Dubai has no U.S. military bases—why was it also targeted by Iran? A neutral financial hub sounds the alarm)

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• Motivation 1: Prevent the spread of conflict and de-escalate regional tensions

• Motivation 2: Stabilize internal situation and buy time for leadership transition

• Motivation 3: Project a pragmatic image and send negotiation signals to the West

• Oil prices surge 35% in one week

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivered a televised speech on March 7, publicly apologizing to neighboring Middle Eastern countries attacked by Iran. This is highly unusual in Iran’s political history. BBC conducted an in-depth analysis, suggesting three possible motives behind the apology, which may all be valid simultaneously.

Motivation 1: Prevent the spread of conflict and de-escalate regional tensions

Raisi’s primary goal is to prevent the conflict from escalating further. If Tehran continues to push neighboring countries toward confrontation, Iran risks becoming more isolated regionally. This public apology sends a clear signal: Iran has no intention of allowing the conflict to spread further.

Motivation 2: Stabilize internal situation and buy time for leadership transition

With Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, Iran’s highest decision-making authority has shifted to an interim committee. Raisi’s apology is seen as a strategic move to stabilize the situation during this power vacuum, aiming to buy time for the new leadership to establish itself.

However, hardliners within Iran have publicly criticized the statement as “too soft,” indicating ongoing internal disagreements over the country’s direction.

Motivation 3: Project a pragmatic image and send negotiation signals to the West

BBC further analyzes that this apology might mark the beginning of a political repositioning within Iran. By demonstrating a pragmatic attitude, Raisi aims to be seen by Western countries as a more negotiable partner, paving the way for future diplomatic negotiations.

Oil prices surge 35% in one week

Market reactions to Iran’s apology go beyond geopolitical concerns; attention is also drawn to oil prices.

U.S. crude oil experienced its largest weekly increase since 1982, soaring 34.5%. Brent crude rose above $93. This figure is significant because it directly influences the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. If oil prices remain high, inflation expectations could reignite, potentially closing the market’s hoped-for rate cut window in June.

Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran has “apologized” and demanded total surrender. Analysts predict a ceasefire could occur around March 12. However, Raisi’s wording leaves room for ambiguity: he also criticized the U.S. unconditional surrender demand as “a fantasy that should be buried.”