Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are in early-stage discussions for fundraising rounds that could value each company at approximately $20 billion, roughly double their valuations from late 2025, according to reports.
The potential deals come as both platforms lead the rapidly growing prediction market sector with combined open interest exceeding $760 million and weekly trading volumes approaching $4 billion, alongside the release of President Donald Trump’s National Cyber Strategy which explicitly supports cryptocurrency and blockchain security.
Fundraising Discussions and Valuation Context
Kalshi’s Growth Trajectory
Kalshi, founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, is exploring a fundraising round that would value the CFTC-regulated platform at approximately $20 billion. The company raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December 2025 and has since achieved an annualized revenue run rate of about $1.5 billion, according to sources familiar with the business.
Kalshi operates under approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, making it one of the few regulated prediction market platforms in the United States. The platform allows users to trade contracts tied to real-world events across categories including economics, politics, and current affairs.
Polymarket’s Market Position
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, is also in early discussions for a fundraising round that would value the platform at approximately $20 billion. The company was valued at $9 billion in October 2025 following Intercontinental Exchange’s agreement to invest up to $2 billion in the platform.
Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket operates outside CFTC regulation and settled a $1.4 million enforcement action with the agency in 2024, agreeing to cease violating regulations regarding event contract trading. The platform has since continued operating while navigating the regulatory landscape.
Both companies have not responded to requests for comment on the fundraising discussions, and sources caution that talks remain preliminary and may not result in finalized investments.
Prediction Market Sector Growth
Trading Volume and Open Interest
Prediction markets have emerged as one of the fastest-growing sectors in digital asset trading, with platforms enabling users to monetize information on world events through event contract trading. According to Dune Analytics data, Kalshi’s open interest currently exceeds $400 million, while Polymarket’s open interest stands at approximately $360 million. The third-largest market, Opinion, trails significantly with $36 million in open interest.
Weekly notional volume—the total underlying value of all prediction contracts traded—reached $1.9 billion on Polymarket last week, with Kalshi recording $1.87 billion. Opinion’s weekly volume dropped to $150 million from over $1.2 billion ahead of its token launch.
Industry Expansion
The sector’s growth has attracted major financial and technology companies. Coinbase and Robinhood have entered the prediction market space, while Wall Street giants Nasdaq and Cboe are reportedly considering rolling out binary options contracts that would function similarly to prediction market betting.
This expansion reflects increasing mainstream interest in event-based trading products, which allow traders to express views on everything from election outcomes to economic data releases.
Trump Cyber Strategy and Crypto Policy Context
Crypto and Blockchain Security Support
The fundraising discussions coincide with the release of President Donald Trump’s National Cyber Strategy for America on March 6, 2026, which explicitly names cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies as priorities for federal protection. The strategy states the administration will “build secure technologies and supply chains that protect user privacy from design to deployment, including supporting the security of cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks.”
This marks the first U.S. cybersecurity framework to explicitly support crypto infrastructure, framing blockchain as essential to American innovation and positioning it as a counterweight to foreign digital platforms that enable censorship.
Quantum Computing Considerations
The strategy also promotes post-quantum cryptography—encryption systems designed to withstand attacks from future quantum computers—alongside the development of secure quantum computing technologies. This has sparked renewed industry debate about blockchain network preparedness for potential quantum threats.
Michael Saylor, co-founder of Bitcoin-focused firm Strategy, has characterized concerns about quantum threats as exaggerated while acknowledging developers should remain prepared for technological shifts. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin proposed a “quantum roadmap” earlier this year aimed at preparing the blockchain for potential cryptographic challenges from quantum computing.
Broader Digital Asset Policy
The cyber strategy aligns with other Trump administration actions affecting digital assets, including the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve from seized assets, a prohibition on U.S. central bank digital currency development, and ongoing legislative efforts around stablecoins and market structure through the CLARITY Act.
On the same day the strategy was released, the president signed an executive order targeting cybercrime as part of broader efforts to strengthen the country’s digital defenses.
Regulatory Landscape for Prediction Markets
CFTC Oversight
Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation, distinguishing it from Polymarket which faced prior enforcement action. CFTC Chair Mike Selig has emphasized the connection between cybersecurity priorities and the agency’s modernization of rules for on-chain markets, noting that secure blockchain infrastructure is a precondition for functioning digital asset markets.
State-Level Considerations
Prediction markets also face potential state-level actions. Recent federal court rulings have allowed Nevada to pursue civil enforcement actions against prediction market platforms in state court, creating additional regulatory complexity for the sector.
Bitcoin Market Context
Despite the administration’s pro-crypto policy shifts, blockchain data shows the number of addresses holding at least $1 million in Bitcoin has fallen approximately 16 percent year over year, shedding roughly 25,000 millionaire addresses since Trump returned to office. This suggests regulatory optimism has not translated into sustained on-chain wealth growth.
The Federal Reserve has again held interest rates steady, citing solid growth and still-elevated inflation, while Trump has intensified pressure on Chair Jerome Powell including threats of a criminal investigation. Powell has declined to comment on the investigation and defended the Fed’s independence, warning that politicizing monetary policy would undermine the institution’s credibility.
FAQ: Kalshi and Polymarket Fundraising
Q: What are the proposed valuations for Kalshi and Polymarket in their new fundraising rounds?
A: Both platforms are in early discussions for funding rounds that could value each at approximately $20 billion, roughly double their previous valuations of $11 billion for Kalshi and $9 billion for Polymarket from late 2025.
Q: How large is the prediction market sector in terms of trading activity?
A: Kalshi’s open interest exceeds $400 million with weekly volume near $1.87 billion, while Polymarket’s open interest stands at approximately $360 million with $1.9 billion in weekly volume. Opinion, the third-largest platform, has $36 million in open interest and $150 million in weekly volume.
Q: What regulatory framework applies to Kalshi versus Polymarket?
A: Kalshi operates under CFTC approval as a regulated prediction market platform. Polymarket previously settled a CFTC enforcement action in 2024 regarding event contract trading violations and continues operating outside direct CFTC regulation.
Q: How does the new Trump cyber strategy relate to prediction markets?
A: The strategy explicitly supports cryptocurrency and blockchain security, which underpins prediction market infrastructure. It also promotes post-quantum cryptography to address future quantum computing threats to blockchain encryption standards.
