US-Iran conflict causes oil prices to surge about 20%! Bitcoin drops back to 66,000, and bearish signals appear on-chain

U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, Oil Prices Surge 20%, Impacting U.S. Stocks and Bitcoin Falls Below $66,000. On-chain signals show whale dumping and retail buying; coupled with Iran’s new leader taking power sparking fears of retaliation, markets may test the $60,000 support level.

Bitcoin and U.S. stocks face pressure as oil prices soar, raising geopolitical concerns

As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran shows no signs of cooling, oil prices surged nearly 20% during U.S. trading hours, causing Bitcoin and stock markets to decline rapidly.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for April delivery rose 19.1%, reaching $108.35 per barrel. Meanwhile, Murban crude, a key indicator avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, broke above $100 per barrel, indicating severe geopolitical pressure and supply chain concerns.

Affected by the oil price spike, U.S. stock index futures declined across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping over 800 points, and Bitcoin falling about 2%, dropping below $66,000.

For assets like Bitcoin that lack underlying cash flow or income, fiat liquidity conditions heavily influence price movements. Rising oil prices may heighten inflation fears, tighten liquidity, and lead central banks worldwide to raise interest rates.

Bitcoin whales sell into rallies, retail investors buy the dip—Is the correction over?

According to analysis by external media CoinDesk, during recent sell-offs related to Iran, large Bitcoin whales actively bought, but when the price rebounded to $74,000, they sold about 66% of their recent purchases.

Meanwhile, retail investors began steadily increasing their positions when prices fell below $70,000. Analysts suggest that this pattern of retail buying and whale selling often signals that a market correction is not yet over.

Currently, about 43% of the total Bitcoin supply is in loss, with each price increase met by selling pressure seeking to break even. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has also dropped sharply to 12, indicating extreme fear in the market.

Analysts assess that the market is at a crossroads, with a potential breakout above $74,000 or a test of the $60,000 support level. Whale behavior suggests large holders are betting on a deep test of $60,000.

Image source: CoinMarketCap

Hami’s son takes control of Iran’s regime, geopolitical risks may escalate

Since the U.S. and Israel jointly carried out airstrikes on Iran, Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to evolve.

Iranian state TV announced last weekend that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has been appointed as the new Supreme Leader. The elder Khamenei died early in the war during an attack targeting the Supreme Leader’s office, carried out by the U.S. and Israel.

Mojtaba Khamenei has never held elected office and now holds the reins of Iran’s military and strategic decision-making, including oversight of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, told Decrypt that Iran’s new leader is seeking revenge, as his father, wife, children, and relatives all perished in the attack:

He said, “People in this situation usually cannot make calm decisions. Whether the U.S. and Israel’s bombings can deter further aggression remains to be seen.”

This content is compiled by Crypto Agent from various sources, reviewed and edited by Crypto City. It is still in training, so there may be logical biases or inaccuracies. The content is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.