"Whale dumping, retail investors getting caught" is bearish? Analysis: Bitcoin's decline may continue

Don’t be fooled by short-term violent surges; they may just be a “panic wave.” Santiment data shows that Bitcoin whales actively bought the dip during the sell-off triggered by the Iran conflict, but as the price rebounded to $74,000, they quickly took profits on most of their holdings, handing the gains to eager retail investors. Analysts believe this is often a warning sign that “the market correction is not over yet.”

According to a report from on-chain analytics platform Santiment, whales holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin intensified their accumulation from February 23 to March 3, when prices ranged from about $62,900 to $69,600, coinciding with the peak of panic selling amid Middle East tensions.

However, when Bitcoin surged to $74,000 last Thursday, these whales started to take profits, selling off about 66% of their recently acquired low-cost positions in a short period.

While the whales quietly retreat, another part of the market shows a completely different picture. As Bitcoin fell below $70,000 last Friday, nano-holders with less than 0.01 Bitcoin continued to add to their positions. This pattern is a classic market warning sign highlighted by Santiment:

When whales sell high while retail investors rush to buy in, it often indicates that the correction is not yet over.

Over 40% of Bitcoin is in loss; rebound faces heavy selling pressure
Another on-chain analytics firm, Glassnode, further emphasizes the heavy resistance above. Currently, up to 43% of the total Bitcoin supply is in unrealized loss.
In other words, every upward rebound in Bitcoin faces those who have been trapped for weeks or even months, eager to break even. Instead of chasing higher profits, they are more focused on “getting out at cost.” This explains the dilemma Bitcoin faced when reaching $74,000: on one hand, whales taking profits; on the other, many investors selling near their cost basis, hindering the rally.

As the market faces selling pressure, sentiment also plummets. The widely watched “Crypto Fear and Greed Index” dropped to “12” on Saturday (out of 100), entering “extreme fear” territory — the lowest since the market crash in October last year.

High volatility with no clear direction; market in a tug-of-war
Currently, the market is in a pattern of “volatile weekly swings and sideways monthly movement.” Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 on February 6, then surged to $74,000 on March 5, and now has fallen back to around $66,000, nearly the same level as three weeks ago.
Despite the intense fluctuations, the actual price change is minimal, caused by repeated chip turnover: each rebound is sold into by trapped investors, while dips attract retail buyers to bottom fish.

Only “two possible scenarios” lie ahead
This market stalemate is usually broken in one of two ways.
The first scenario is that selling pressure gradually subsides, trapped positions are absorbed, and Bitcoin with increased volume breaks through $74,000, resuming an upward trend. The second possibility is that buying momentum diminishes, retail funds weaken, and Bitcoin ultimately retests the critical support zone around $60,000.