TAO tests the $200 USD threshold amid a strong buying wave; will a breakout occur?

Bittensor (TAO) increased about 8% at the time of writing on Tuesday, approaching the psychological level of $200. Data from the derivatives market shows that the open interest (OI) of TAO futures contracts has surged significantly, indicating that both large and small investors are betting on the coin’s continued recovery. However, the technical picture remains unclear as the rally faces considerable resistance around the $200 mark, making TAO’s short-term outlook uncertain and sideways.

Derivatives Data Shows Positive Sentiment from Whales and Retail Investors

Bittensor is attracting strong attention from retail investors as the price enters a short-term recovery phase and approaches the $200 psychological level. Data from CoinGlass indicates that the open interest of TAO futures contracts has reached $182.96 million, up 10.86% in 24 hours, reflecting a rising demand for trading this AI token. Typically, expanding OI during a recovery signals that new capital is entering the market, increasing the likelihood that the price will sustain its upward momentum.

Furthermore, the funding rate based on TAO’s OI is currently at 0.0055%, a sharp reversal from -0.717% recorded on Sunday. This shift suggests that bullish trader sentiment is improving significantly as demand to open long positions increases. If both OI and the funding rate continue to rise steadily, TAO’s recovery trend could be further reinforced in the short term.

TAO Derivatives Data | Source: CoinGlass From a large-cap perspective, data from CryptoQuant shows that the average size of executed trades on TAO’s spot and futures markets is increasing, indicating growing whale participation. At the same time, the gap between buy and sell volume over the past three months remains positive and continues to widen, suggesting that demand is absorbing supply more strongly in the market.

Bittensor Market Indicators | Source: CryptoQuant

Technical Outlook: Can Bittensor Break Above $200?

Bittensor continued its recovery on Tuesday, approaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $196. On the daily logarithmic chart, this AI token is forming a short-term uptrend within a broader descending channel, established by peaks on November 1 and January 14.

However, TAO’s rally faces significant resistance from the channel’s downward trendline, coinciding with the $200 zone—where technical resistance and psychological levels converge. A convincing daily close above $200 could strengthen the bullish trend, opening the path toward the next target at the 100-day EMA near $227, before testing the $263 level—November 22’s low and close to the 200-day EMA at $269.

Daily TAO/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView Daily technical indicators are slightly tilted bullish. The MACD lines are approaching the zero line, while the positive histogram persists, indicating that the buy signal remains intact. Additionally, RSI is at 56, crossing above the neutral threshold, reflecting bullish momentum and room for further gains before entering overbought territory.

If momentum indicators continue to improve, TAO is likely to extend its recovery and break through the $200 level in the short term.

Conversely, the nearest support zone is at $142, corresponding to the swing low on February 6. Breaking below this level could increase selling pressure, pushing TAO’s price further down toward the psychological $100 mark.

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