Trump hints "war is almost over," triggering a rebound! BTC, ETH market outlook analysis at a glance

U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that “the Iran conflict is nearing its end,” sparking cheers across global risk assets and leading to a strong rebound in mainstream cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin recovered the $70,000 mark, and Ethereum also regained the important psychological level of $2,000.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,032, up 4.5% in the past 24 hours; Ethereum rose 3.1% to $2,068, re-establishing itself above the $2,000 threshold, which has been seen as a “dividing line” between bullish and bearish sentiment in recent weeks; Solana (SOL) increased 3.7% to $86.74; Binance Coin (BNB) rose 3.3% to $646.06; Ripple (XRP) also gained 4.3% to $1.40.

Trump says the war is ending soon! Asian markets and crypto markets surge

The key catalyst igniting this bullish trend came from U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks. He stated that the war with Iran “will end soon” and emphasized that the military mission “is largely accomplished,” prompting a strong rebound in Asian stock markets, which had fallen 3.7% on Monday, to rally 2%, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Tech Index soaring 3.5%. Meanwhile, international oil prices, which previously surged to $119 per barrel, have fallen back below $100.

Crypto market maker Enflux said, “During the initial wave of risk-off selling, Bitcoin briefly fell below $66,000 but quickly found strong support between $66,000 and $68,000 and stabilized.”

In terms of relative performance, Bitcoin’s resilience this time outperformed stocks and even some traditional safe-haven assets.

Institutional buying supports market sentiment recovery

Additionally, strong demand from institutional investors remains a key pillar supporting prices. According to data platform SoSoValue, despite overall market volatility, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted about $568 million in net inflows last week, continuing the previous week’s strong buying of $787 million, bringing the total net inflow since launch to over $55 billion.

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s latest report indicates that on-chain and derivatives market indicators also show signs of stabilization after recent intense washouts, though investor confidence has not fully recovered. The report states:

Overall, market conditions are gradually improving, with momentum, ETF buying, and profit indicators showing slight rebounds. However, capital inflows remain weak, speculative participation is limited, and overall market confidence still needs time to rebuild.

As Bitcoin regains upward momentum, bullish sentiment in the market is also quickly ignited. On the well-known decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin surpassing $75,000 by March has surged from 34% to 56% in one day, reflecting traders’ rapidly shifting expectations.

It’s worth noting that as the cryptocurrency market experiences a surge of capital, the U.S. stock market’s S&P 500 index has lost $1 trillion in market value in a single day, and the U.S. economy has shed 92,000 jobs amid turbulence. Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement, commented:

Even if prices weaken, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract funds, indicating that institutions see this pullback as a “tactical entry” opportunity rather than a “surrender sell-off” following retail investors.

Ethereum’s $2,000 level becomes a market focus

Looking ahead this week, whether Ethereum can hold above $2,000 will be a key focus. Since late February, this level has been a battleground for bulls and bears. FxPro analysts warn that Ethereum must break through the “$2,500 barrier” and rise above the “200-week moving average” to confirm a genuine recovery rather than just a short-term rebound.

Solana and meme coin hype cool down

In contrast, Solana (SOL) appears more fragile in this rebound. SOL is still about 55% below its recent cycle high. Since the market crash in October last year, SOL has underperformed compared to Ethereum during every rebound. The reason is that the previous meme coin frenzy that supported Solana’s surge in 2024 has gradually cooled off. As speculative momentum wanes, SOL’s price movements are more influenced by overall economic sentiment rather than ecosystem activity.

Ripple remains range-bound

Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) is among the least volatile major cryptocurrencies, trading roughly between $1.30 and $1.45 since March. Despite strong ETF inflows and the resolution of legal disputes following Ripple’s settlement, XRP has yet to decouple significantly from broader market trends.

Federal Reserve rate decision as the next key variable

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision meeting scheduled for March 17-18 will be the next major test for the crypto market. Ryan Kirkley pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the U.S. stock market has recently increased significantly. Data shows that the 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen to 0.78, the highest since mid-2022.