Gate News: On March 11, in the Polymarket prediction market, a single account invested $5,800 to buy the option “Cryptocurrency Payment Card Total Transactions to Surpass $1.5 Billion by March 31.” Driven by this large single transaction, the probability of this event skyrocketed from 4% to 88% within an hour.
According to settlement rules, the data standard for this prediction market is based on the “total transactions of cryptocurrency payment cards” recorded by the PaymentScan platform. If, before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on March 31, the cumulative transaction amount shown on the chart reaches or exceeds $1.5 billion, the prediction market will settle as “Yes.”
The surge in funds and the rapid increase in probability are suspected to be caused by PaymentScan integrating data related to the RedotPay cryptocurrency payment card project into its statistics system. This new data source caused the recorded total transactions on the platform to jump from around $1 billion to $1.456 billion, approaching the $1.5 billion settlement threshold set by the prediction market.
The account address is: 0xe39783f92ee0985f1ab5fe514030f946825abfcb.
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