Maritime Oil War! Multiple Russian Oil Tankers Rerouted from China to India

Recent tensions in the Middle East have disrupted oil supply, causing several Russian oil tankers originally headed to China to change course in the South China Sea and redirect toward Indian ports. According to statistics, Indian refineries purchased as much as 30 million barrels of Russian crude oil in the first week after policy liberalization, triggering at least seven tankers to reroute mid-voyage. The oil shortages in various countries have also led to a narrowing of the price gap between Russia’s main export, Urals crude, and the international benchmark Brent crude, indicating that Russia can now earn higher actual revenues per barrel exported than in recent months.

India aggressively rushes to buy oil! Multiple Russian oil tankers reroute mid-voyage

According to Bloomberg, recent developments have caused dramatic changes in the maritime oil trade landscape. Data from maritime analysis agencies show that at least seven oil tankers carrying Russian oil have changed their destination from China to India. A notable example is the Aframax tanker Aqua Titan, which was originally transporting Urals crude to Rizhao Port in China but turned back in Southeast Asian waters in mid-March, expected to arrive at New Mangalore, India, on March 21. Additionally, the Suezmax tanker Zouzou N., carrying Kazakh blend crude, has also diverted to Sikka Port in India. These data points reflect active market competition among Indian refineries in the spot market.

Geopolitical conflicts and the rapid shift in the spot oil market

The sudden rerouting of maritime oil routes is primarily driven by the regional turmoil caused by the Iran war. Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led to disruptions in the global energy supply chain, posing serious energy security challenges for importing countries dependent on regional oil. To prevent global oil prices from spiraling out of control, the U.S. government has granted approval for India to temporarily increase imports of Russian crude. This policy flexibility has enabled Indian refiners to purchase up to 30 million barrels of Russian oil within a week to fill the supply gap caused by reduced Middle Eastern exports. This move demonstrates the rapid reorganization capability of the global energy supply chain under crisis conditions.

The oil market is mainly divided into futures and spot systems. Futures markets include well-known benchmarks like Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, while the core feature of the spot market is “immediate delivery,” where buyers and sellers trade physical crude oil that has already been extracted or loaded onto tankers. Delivery is usually scheduled within days or weeks after the transaction. In international oil trade, some maritime cargoes are not strictly bound to a buyer before departure, or contracts may allow resale before delivery. When India receives policy exemptions and urgently needs to fill the oil gap, multinational traders can quickly resell the Russian crude oil destined for Asia in the spot market at more competitive prices to Indian refiners.

Is Russia benefiting from Middle East conflicts?

With regulatory relaxations, more countries—including traditional energy consumers like Japan and South Korea—are expected to resume purchasing Russian crude. Over the past few months, China has been the primary recipient of Russian oil; however, as other Asian buyers return, the supply and demand dynamics in the oil market will change. Multiple buyers competing for limited Russian oil supplies will narrow the price gap between Russia’s main export, Urals crude, and the international benchmark Brent crude, meaning Russia can now earn higher actual revenues per barrel than in recent months.

This article, “Maritime Oil Race! Multiple Russian Oil Tankers Redirect from China to India,” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.