Polymarket: Probability of Neymar Playing in 2026 World Cup at 44%

Gate News reports that on March 19, according to PolyBeats monitoring, the current probability of Brazilian football star Neymar participating in the 2026 World Cup for Brazil on the prediction market Polymarket is 44%. According to settlement rules, if Neymar plays in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage or later stages, the market will settle as “Yes.” Any form of appearance counts, including regular time, injury time, extra time, or penalty shootouts. Neymar has previously represented Brazil in three consecutive World Cups in 2014, 2018, and 2022. After being eliminated in the quarter-finals of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, he publicly stated he cannot guarantee 100% that he will return to the national team. By the time the 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico takes place, Neymar will be 34 years old. Since suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament at the end of 2023, Neymar has undergone a long recovery period, and after returning, he has repeatedly faced muscle strains and other issues, significantly reducing his playing time. Additionally, the Brazilian national team has recently been gradually establishing an attacking system centered around the younger generation of forwards during call-ups and tactical drills. Head coach Carlo Ancelotti has explicitly stated that players must be in “100% condition” to be selected, regardless of fame.