Bitcoin Options Signal Concern Even as ETF Outflows Remain Relatively Low

Bitcoin (BTC) prices remain sideways around the $70,000 level on Friday after failing to retake the $75,000 mark earlier. This development coincides with two consecutive sessions of net capital outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., reversing the positive trend seen last week. This situation raises concerns that institutional money may be gradually shifting to a more cautious stance, especially as U.S. stocks begin to weaken.

Daily net capital flows of U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs, in millions of USD | Source: Farside Investors Widespread selling pressure across global financial markets continues to weigh on Bitcoin, as the S&P 500 drops to its lowest in six months. Even gold — traditionally seen as a safe haven asset — has experienced a 10% correction in just three days. Amid U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions fueling risk-avoidance sentiment, derivatives market data shows traders’ concerns are increasing significantly.

Bitcoin options trading volume (buy/sell) on Deribit, in USD | Source: Laevitas.ch Specifically, demand for Bitcoin put options on Deribit is about 2.5 times higher than call options, reflecting a defensive stance and a bearish outlook. Notably, a similar pattern appeared at the end of February after Iran refused to negotiate its nuclear program.

Investors disappointed as Bitcoin lags 17% behind the S&P 500

Another key indicator is delta skew — a measure of the difference in implied premiums between put and call options. In risk-averse market conditions, put options tend to trade at significantly higher premiums than calls; conversely, during bullish trends, this index drops deep into negative territory. Currently, Bitcoin’s delta skew (put-call) stands at 16%, indicating that professional traders lack confidence in maintaining the $69,000 price level. While not in panic mode, this index still reflects considerable pressure after a 21% decline over three months.

30-day Bitcoin options delta skew (call-put) at Deribit | Source: Laevitas.ch Underperformance of 17% compared to the S&P 500 during the same period further dampens market sentiment. Notably, the recent recovery to $75,000 has not significantly impacted options markets, suggesting traders continue to prioritize risk mitigation over expanding bullish positions.

Bitcoin/USD exchange rate versus S&P 500 index and gold/USD | Source: TradingView A significant factor reinforcing bearish sentiment is the sharp rise in energy prices. WTI crude oil has stayed above $94 since March 12, up about 50% from the previous month. Supply disruptions in the Middle East not only dampen global economic growth expectations but also limit the Federal Reserve’s room to ease monetary policy amid rising inflation pressures.

According to Oxford Economics, rising fuel prices may force consumers to cut back on spending and put pressure on manufacturing firms reliant on imports, increasing the risk of cost-push inflation and even leading to shortages of goods.

Although the total net outflow of $254 million over two days is not enough to confirm a complete reversal of institutional capital flows, it is clear that the market remains skeptical about Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $68,000. In the short term, trading sentiment is likely to continue being influenced by unfavorable macro factors and ongoing geopolitical tensions, maintaining demand for downside risk hedging in the derivatives market.