Reuters reports that due to the US-Iran conflict causing market volatility, the Bank of Japan's probability of raising interest rates in March has decreased to about 5%. The Middle East situation affects oil prices and economic outlook, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider delaying the rate hike, possibly to April. The yen's depreciation may also prompt a rate increase to stabilize the exchange rate. Analysts point out that if the situation remains uncertain, the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the data.

Author: Frank, PANews In the early morning of February 28, 2026, the global geopolitical landscape was shaken as the Iran-U.S. conflict reignited. This black swan event that altered the geopolitical pattern triggered intense chain reactions in the physical world, and similarly caused a chaotic capital vortex in the digital realm. On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, a contract titled “Will Khamenei step down as Iran’s Supreme Leader before February 28?” has accumulated a trading volume of $81.63 million. As the news of the physical world’s death was gradually confirmed, the settlement of this massive smart contract faced severe paralysis and controversy. Both Yes proposals were rejected twice, and the market was forced into the final arbitration stage of the UMA oracle. This dispute once again sparked reflections on the judgment of prediction markets, and multiple addresses were exposed, suspected of being insider addresses that seized over $1 million in profits.

Universa Investments founder Mark Spitznagel warns that the S&P 500 could surge to 8,000 points but then face a sharp crash. He points out that the current market is nearing the end of the bubble and advises investors to prepare for a potential 80% correction while remaining rational and not being swayed by market sentiment.

Author: Nancy, PANews The black swan-style crash has arrived, but we haven't seen where the black swan is, which is even more unsettling. Without any warning signs, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, entering the third-largest oversold zone in history, with bullish account balances and psychological defenses simultaneously breaking down. What confuses the market is that this spiral decline lacks a clear trigger. Although the sharp shift in macro risks, the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, tightening liquidity, and chain reactions of leveraged liquidations can explain the downward trend, some atypical speculations are also attempting to explain the strange nature of this market movement. Speculation 1: A cross-market bloodbath triggered by Asian giants Pantera Capital general partner Franklin Bi posted a hypothesis suggesting that the mastermind behind the recent large-scale sell-off in the crypto market is not a crypto-focused trading firm, but rather an Asian heavyweight from outside the circle.

Author: Nancy, PANews The black swan-style crash has arrived, but we haven't seen where the black swan is, which is even more unsettling. Without any warning signs, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, entering the third-largest oversold zone in history, with bullish account balances and psychological defenses simultaneously breaking down. What confuses the market is that this spiral decline lacks a clear trigger. Although the sharp shift in macro risks, the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, tightening liquidity, and chain reactions of leveraged liquidations can explain the downward trend, some atypical speculations are also attempting to explain the strange nature of this market movement. Speculation 1: A cross-market bloodbath triggered by Asian giants Pantera Capital general partner Franklin Bi posted a hypothesis suggesting that the mastermind behind the recent large-scale sell-off in the crypto market is not a crypto-focused trading firm, but rather an Asian heavyweight from outside the circle.

Author: Nancy, PANews The black swan-style crash has arrived, but we haven't seen where the black swan is, which is even more unsettling. Without any warning signs, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, entering the third-largest oversold zone in history, with bullish account balances and psychological defenses simultaneously breaking down. What confuses the market is that this spiral decline lacks a clear trigger. Although the sharp shift in macro risks, the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, tightening liquidity, and chain reactions of leveraged liquidations can explain the downward trend, some atypical speculations are also attempting to explain the strange nature of this market movement. Speculation 1: A cross-market bloodbath triggered by Asian giants Pantera Capital general partner Franklin Bi posted a hypothesis suggesting that the mastermind behind the recent large-scale sell-off in the crypto market is not a crypto-focused trading firm, but rather an Asian heavyweight from outside the circle.

Bitcoin records a single-day net loss of $3.2 billion, surpassing all historical black swan events such as the FTX collapse, LUNA zeroing out, the 519 and 312 incidents. But this time, there were no exchange bankruptcies, no stablecoin depegging, and no familiar North Korean hackers; was the market simply sent into a cold winter by its own leverage? (Background: Is Bitcoin a software stock? The US stock market evaporated $1 trillion, and BTC followed as a casualty) (Additional context: MicroStrategy CEO: Bitcoin had been falling to $8,000 and lying flat for years before threatening Strategy’s debt repayment ability) Table of Contents The Crypto Murder Case "Institutionalization" is a true double-edged sword Not even a decent villain Alright, that’s enough criticizing Deleveraging completed = cleanup finished Institutions are changing their stance Has the four-year cycle ended? This might be a good thing

Author: Nancy, PANews The black swan-style crash has arrived, but we haven't seen where the black swan is, which is even more unsettling. Without any warning signs, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted, entering the third-largest oversold zone in history, with bullish account balances and psychological defenses simultaneously breaking down. What confuses the market is that this spiral decline lacks a clear trigger. Although the sharp shift in macro risks, the reassessment of the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, tightening liquidity, and chain reactions of leveraged liquidations can explain the downward trend, some atypical speculations are also attempting to explain the strange nature of this market movement. Speculation 1: A cross-market bloodbath triggered by Asian giants Pantera Capital general partner Franklin Bi posted a hypothesis suggesting that the mastermind behind the recent large-scale sell-off in the crypto market is not a crypto-focused trading firm, but rather an Asian heavyweight from outside the circle.

On February 5th, BTC's physical adjustment resulted in realized losses reaching $3.2 billion, a new all-time high, surpassing all black swan events. This sell-off did not have a clear trigger; the market seems to have experienced significant losses due to self-panic, raising concerns about future trends.

Bitcoin falls below key support, spot trading volume remains sluggish, and investor losses lead to increased selling. The futures market is undergoing forced deleveraging, institutional capital inflows have significantly weakened, and the market has entered a defensive stance. This article is based on a piece by Glassnode, compiled, edited, and written by Foresight News. (Previous summary: Bitcoin breaks below $70,000! Returns to November 2024 levels, fully retracing Trump-era gains) (Additional background: Arthur Hayes warns of more black swan events for Bitcoin: today's BTC trend looks concerning) Table of Contents Core Insights On-Chain Data Observations Breaking below key support Analysis of potential demand zones Market pressure indicators Comparison with historical cycles Market Dynamics Machine