#关税政策后市场分析 Trump's policies will shake the global economy: Bitcoin will fall to $21,750!

Cryptocurrency analyst DeFiTracer claimed in a social media post shared on April 3, 2025, that new tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump could lead to a significant global economic recession. According to leaked market data, the analyst suggested that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) would fall below $21,750, while the value of Ethereum (ETH) would lose 75%.
However, this analyst believes that Trump's so-called "world tax war" is aimed at reviving the cryptocurrency market in the long run, even if it causes market panic in the short term. Here are the details analyzed by DeFiTracer.
Trump's tariff policy and the initial market reaction.
In a speech on April 2, 2025, Trump announced that comprehensive tariffs would be imposed on products imported to the United States. The tariff rates were set at half of the rates imposed by other countries on the United States; for example, the rate for the United Kingdom is 10%, for China it is 34%, and for Cambodia it is 49%.
According to Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, this step raises the total import tax in the U.S. from 2.5% to 22%, the highest level since 1910. After the tax announcement, there was significant panic in the market; Bitcoin fell by 7%, while the entire crypto market lost 92.45, leading to a total loss of 1.6 trillion dollars.
Trump's plan: create a crisis, provide a solution
According to DeFiTracer, Trump's aim in implementing these taxes is twofold: first, to promote refinancing government debt at low interest rates; second, to stimulate the cryptocurrency market in the long term.
Analysts summarize Trump's strategy as "creating problems, causing panic, and appearing as a hero with pre-planned solutions." Reports indicate that an economic crisis triggered by taxes will force the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, which will increase risk appetite and lead to capital flow into assets like Bitcoin.
Trump recently imposed new tariffs on the automotive, aluminum, and pharmaceutical industries.
The impact of Trump's tax policy on Bitcoin and other coin sectors.
Analysts say that based on the data, the probability of a recession in the United States has risen to 52%. He warned that as other countries implement retaliatory sanctions, the global economy may experience shocks similar to those during the COVID-19 period. He emphasized that the current decline in the crypto market is similar to the crash of 2018; during that time, Bitcoin lost 30% of its value, while Ethereum lost 40%. However, DeFiTracer predicts that this decline is temporary, and the market will recover in the context of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
According to past data, DeFiTracer reminds us that low interest rates can lead to a rise in Bitcoin prices. In 2021, the Federal Reserve's low interest rates and monetary printing policies caused Bitcoin to reach an all-time high, increasing in value by 24 times. Analysts claim that a similar scenario may unfold again, and Bitcoin could reach new record levels.