🔹 BTC today’s price analysis (July 1, 2025)

🔹 BTC Today’s Trend Analysis (July 1, 2025)

I. Overview of Technical Structure

1. Daily Level Support and Resistance BTC continues to firmly hold above the 20-day EMA (around 105,600) and 50-day EMA (≈103,700), with the bullish structure still intact; the medium-term support level is around 105K. The current key resistance lies in the 108,500–110,200 range; if this area is broken, it may initiate a new round of upward movement.
2. 4-Hour Chart Pattern Analysis Currently, on the 4-hour timeframe, it is consolidating in a “bullish flag or ascending triangle bottom” structure, with resistance concentrated in the 108K–110K range.
3. MACD Trend The MACD histogram remains in positive territory but is converging, with the Signal line and MACD line tending to intersect, indicating that momentum is temporarily slowing down. If the histogram can continue to narrow, it may trigger a short-term pullback.
4. RSI Status The daily RSI remains between 53 and 55, indicating a strong bias but not overbought; the 4-hour RSI has not yet reached 70, suggesting there is still upward space in the short term.

2. Short-term expectation rhythm

• If the 105.6K support holds and is accompanied by a stable increase in volume, it will initiate a phase test of the 108K–110K resistance upwards.
• If it falls below 105K, it may trigger a technical pullback, targeting a drop to 103.7K (50-day EMA) or deeper into the 100K area.

3. Macroeconomic and Market Background

1. ETF Capital Inflow Trend As of the end of June, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $45 billion in funds. If net inflows continue in July, it will strengthen the upward momentum.
2. Dollar and Interest Rate Environment The CME market expects the U.S. to start a rate cut cycle in September, which is beneficial for risk assets. Additionally, the weakening of the dollar index further strengthens this.
3. Geopolitical Influence Although there are currently no major conflicts escalating, the situation in the Middle East and trade still carries uncertainty. Short-term risk-averse fluctuations still exist, but if there are no unexpected events, risk appetite is expected to continue to rebound.

4. Operational Recommendations

• Long Strategy
  • Prerequisite: The price maintains above the daily 20EMA and there is no obvious death cross in the MACD, while the 4h RSI stabilizes.
  • Target: Gradually rise to 108,500–110,000; if it breaks through with volume supporting the upward movement, then the next resistance level to pay attention to is 114K.
• Defensive Strategy
  • If it falls below 105.6K and the MACD bars can significantly decrease in volume or turn red, consider stopping losses or reducing positions.
  • Wait for the price to stabilize at the 50-day EMA (103.7K) before considering entry.
• Swing Trading The current structure leans towards range oscillation, suitable for high selling and low buying operations between 105.6K and 108.5K, participating in short amplitude trading with a small position.

5. Summary

BTC is expected to continue oscillating between 105.6K (daily MA) and 108.5K (resistance zone) today. If it can break above 108.5K with increased volume, a new upward cycle will begin; if it breaks below support, the chance to retrace to around 103.7K will increase. It is recommended to maintain a relatively flexible strategy in operations, focusing on short-term high sell and low buy, following the trend, and entering and exiting according to the plan.

📌 Note: This article combines technical analysis with macro perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Be sure to control your positions and risks.