Ethereum has finally climbed above the $4000 threshold, a battleground for suckers worldwide. Just breaching $4000 today is worth commemorating! This is the fourth time in eight years it has attempted this level, and each time it gets close it crashes—falling 65% in 2021, two rounds of over 40% retracement in 2024, and it stumbled in July this year as well. Now, all eyes across the network are glued to the Candlestick chart, with both sides holding a time bomb of 677 million short orders and 1.247 billion long orders; if the price brushes past $4000, it will blow up the shorts, and if it drops below $3800, it will explode the longs.

Whales are playing even wilder: on one side, an anonymous big player just dumped 49 million USD worth of ETH into the exchange preparing to run away, while on the other side, institutions are off-exchange buying 40.5 million USD, and a company is applying for 5 billion in financing waiting to bottom out. Retail investors are caught in the middle - afraid of buying into a bag and afraid of missing out on a short. Technical analysts are watching the MACD death cross and the tug-of-war signal at RSI 60, while fundamental analysts are betting on a 92.7% probability of ETF funds and a rate cut by the Fed in September.
Historical data suggests that the probability of breaking 4000 has risen to 85%, with targets looking at 4200 to clear out the trapped positions, 4800, and even calling for 5500. But don't forget that last December, when similar selling pressure emerged, ETH was directly halved by 66%. Now, the derivatives market open interest has soared to a historical peak of 51.3 billion, with a daily liquidation volume of 260 million, 90% of which are short positions corpses—this position will either explode into a starry sea or blow through the suckers' underwear.
The gentleman is more inclined towards the stars and the sea, breaking 4877 and directly flying up to become a devastated star!!