Analysis and trading suggestions for ETH market price of 4440 on September 11

Market status and key indicators
1. Technical Indicators
Support level: 4400 (psychological barrier) has been broken, the next key support is at 4380 (4-hour EMA7) and 4359 (daily EMA7). If it falls below 4,350, it may trigger a sell-off to $4,300.
Resistance levels: 4440 (previous high resistance), 4445 (+1 standard deviation resistance). Only breaking through 4445 may restart the upward trend.
Divergence in indicators:
Bearish signal: The J value of the 4-hour KDJ is overbought (102.59), MACD-DIF is deep in the negative zone, and there is a divergence between volume and price (trading volume < 10-day average volume).
Bullish signal: Daily EMA golden cross not broken (4440), Supertrend support at 4380 is still valid.
2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Market: 64% probability that ETH will reach 7000 by the end of the month, 87% probability of hitting a new all-time high, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
On-chain data: Net outflow of 55 million on September 11 indicates reduced selling pressure, and institutions are still accumulating.
Macroeconomic risk: The US PPI inflation exceeded expectations, leading to a short-term pullback, but the September Federal Reserve rate cut expectations (50 basis points) support risk assets.
Operation Suggestions
Immediate Strategy (1-4 hours)
Short selling strategy (60% probability of profit):
Entry: Short at the current price of 4320 with a light position, or add to the position if it rebounds to 4350 without significant volume (VOL < 50000).
Target: 4380→ 4350 (Profit 85-135/ETH).
Stop Loss: 4650 (break through previous high +0.3%).
Long Position Emergency Conditions:
If it breaks through 4440 with volume greater than 60,000 and the 4-hour MACD turns bullish, chase it up to 4700.
Or it may rapidly drop to 4400 and stabilize (15-minute long lower shadow), with a short-term target of 4470.
Position and Risk Control
Position: ≤5% of total funds (avoid heavy positions, prevent black swans).
Stop-loss discipline: Single loss ≤ 1.5% of total funds, profit reaches $80 to take profit at 50%.
Timeliness: Closely monitor around the opening of the European and American markets (liquidity fluctuation period).
Conclusion: At the current price of 4635, prioritize shorting, but strictly adhere to stop-loss and prepare a long strategy.
Short selling: Technical pullback demand is dominant, target 43500.
Long position: Need to wait for 4440 to stabilize or a volume breakout signal above $4450.
Suggestion: Open a light short position (stop loss at 4404). If it touches the 4300 support, you can reverse to go long and capture rebound profits. #美7月PPI年率高于预期 #以太坊ETF突破300亿美元 #Gate Alpha巅峰交易赛 #ETH #BTC