When will ETH break through 5000 USD? A deep analysis of its rise logic and key nodes.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has once again become the focus, with the price trend of Ethereum (ETH) attracting much attention. As of now, the price of ETH is fluctuating around $4000, and many investors are eagerly hoping it can break the $5000 mark. So when can ETH achieve this goal?

From a technical perspective, ETH has been in a clear upward channel since June 2025. Recently, it rebounded from the channel bottom of around $4200, showing strong buying pressure. The key support levels are at $4015 and $3533 (close to the 100-day moving average), while the resistance levels are at $4530 and $4800. If ETH can break through the $4530 - $4800 range, it will initiate a new upward cycle towards $5000. Currently, the 14-day RSI is around 52, and the MACD is slightly positive, indicating that the market is in a neutral to bullish state, but there is still room for upward movement.

Fundamental factors also provide strong support for the rise of ETH. On one hand, the network upgrades of Ethereum have been significant, such as the Dencun upgrade (EIP - 4844), which has greatly reduced Layer - 2 fees, improved scalability, and boosted the activity of Rollup and DeFi applications. On the other hand, on-chain data and capital flows are equally optimistic. On September 2, approximately $107.6 million of ETH net inflow into exchanges was recorded, marking the highest single-day inflow in months; by the end of August, about $1.4 billion flowed into Ethereum ETFs, and by the third quarter of 2025, the total net inflow of Ethereum spot funds exceeded $33 billion. The continuous influx of institutional funds reflects the market's high recognition of ETH's future value.

The macro environment is also favorable for ETH. The global money supply is increasing, monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, and investors' risk appetite is rising, which greatly enhances the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market. In addition, the gradual clarification of regulations and the adoption of Ethereum by enterprises, such as the pledge of millions of ETH in treasury bonds, provide a solid foundation for the rise in ETH prices.

Market experts are cautiously optimistic about ETH breaking the $5000 mark. Some analysts believe that if ETF inflows and trading volume remain strong, ETH is likely to break the $4900 - $5200 range in the short term. However, some experts also point out that breaking the $5000 mark requires strong buying pressure, and if it cannot break through the key resistance level, ETH may consolidate around $4000.

Overall, ETH has the potential to break through $5000, but there remains uncertainty about when it will happen. Investors need to closely monitor key factors such as ETF fund inflows, staking trends, network upgrade progress, and macroeconomic conditions. Once the key resistance level is broken and the market maintains a positive stance, ETH breaking through $5000 may be just around the corner.