#加密市场反弹 #SOL价格预测 #GUSD双重收益 Currently, there is the following favourable information regarding Bitcoin:

- Institutional investment plan promotion: Institutions such as SoftBank and Tether have announced plans to create a $3.6 billion investment vehicle, emulating Microstrategy's Bitcoin investment strategy, which will bring substantial incremental funds to Bitcoin.

- Futures basis and capital inflow favourable information: The recovery of US stocks has driven the Bitcoin futures basis to rise to around 10%, and the annualized level of futures premium has also risen to 9%-10%. At the same time, about 900 million USD has flowed into the US Bitcoin spot ETF, and the long momentum in basis trading has a positive effect on price.

- Market sentiment and options indicators are favorable: Bitcoin's 1-month implied volatility is at the lower bound of the 1-year range, slightly below 50, while the 1-month actual volatility is close to 60. The 25 delta risk reversal indicator for the past 3 months has turned, and the prices of call options have begun to rise, indicating a strengthening bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.

- Strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: Recent economic data in the U.S. has been underperforming, with a strong expectation for a rate cut in September, almost a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 10% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Historical data shows that each time the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, assets like Bitcoin typically experience price increases.

- Whales Increase Bitcoin Holdings: Recently, some whales have been aggressively increasing their Bitcoin holdings, with one instance of a single purchase of 320 coins, worth over 36 million USD, showing that large funds are optimistic about Bitcoin.

- Favourable Policy Environment: The United States has prohibited federal agencies from engaging in actions related to the digital dollar CBDC, while also amending banking regulations to allow banks to custody Bitcoin and other digital assets. Additionally, a new Digital Assets Committee has been established under the Senate Banking Committee. These policy changes indicate that the compliance and mainstream recognition of Bitcoin are continuously improving.