Today's price fluctuation is a bit large, but judging from the market's impact, it is very likely due to investors' expectations regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown. Currently, on Kalshi, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown on October 1st has risen to 83%. During the shutdown, the mainstream expectation is that it will last no more than 10 days, with fewer options for shutdowns exceeding 10 days.

I looked at the historical data, and in most cases, it is less than 14 days. Most investors still believe that a shutdown can be completed within 10 days, and the most chosen option is still that it will shut down for a weekend. Because if it exceeds the weekend, Trump has already spoken out, and it is very likely that a large number of federal government employees will be laid off. I suddenly thought, could this increase the unemployment rate and pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates? It seems quite possible.
In addition, Trump's plan to send nuclear submarines to Russia is also a cause for concern in the market. Although Trump has repeatedly explained that the nuclear submarines will not be detected by Russia and will be used as little as possible, if Russia is stubborn, Trump might not suggest a deterrent. This could create big trouble for the market. Once Russia starts using nuclear weapons, it's estimated that the market will directly trigger the "final drop."
Of course, I believe it will not be activated unless absolutely necessary. Let's wait and see, hopefully Russia won't do anything impulsive.
Looking back at the BTC data, the turnover rate has not changed much, and the slight decline in price is most likely due to investors' concerns about the U.S. shutdown. However, whether viewed from the U.S. stock market or the price of $BTC , the temporary impact is still relatively limited. If the U.S. does indeed enter a shutdown tomorrow, will the market fully anticipate a reduction in the drop, or will it continue to decline due to the shutdown? We should have the answer by next Monday.
Although the price of BTC has fallen, the overall chip distribution is still very healthy, and the strength of the support level is also good. However, it cannot be ruled out that the deepening contradictions caused by the suspension may lead to increased panic among investors. In simple terms, if it can resume next Monday, then it is likely to be a weekend fluctuation market. But if it is still suspended next week, it may indeed worsen the market's pessimistic expectations. #成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边