#市场分析与趋势 Yesterday I thought of a very scary question: did I misjudge the strength of the third pump on the weekly chart? All previous data were based on the assumption that the peak of the third pump on the weekly chart was 1124474. The first pump lasted about 168 days and rose by 60,000. So far, the third pump has lasted about 175 days and has risen by 50,000. We previously expected that this pullback would go down to 93500, and then the fifth pump would rise by about 40,000, which means it would challenge 140,000. So if the third pump exceeds 60,000, it would start at 135,000. Of course, all of this is speculation. I generally do not use stop loss when trading, and I can basically sense the tops and bottoms. In a large cycle, it doesn't differ by a few thousand points, so today I will share my judgment after changing my thinking.

First of all, on the daily level, all data is currently on the rise, and historically, October has always seen a surge. The price has also broken through the central point of the past few weeks. The most frightening thing is that the energy on the daily level has not yet been released. At this point, it is really very difficult to judge the big cycle, but if I were to give advice, both long and short positions can be considered. For long positions, one can touch the bottom of the range around 117300, with a stop loss at about 116300. If one can touch long here, it can be held for a while, after all, the daily has just started to activate energy. For short positions, this is currently the first short position to touch, with a stop loss at 120000. Because the daily MACD energy and other indicators still need to be observed. So this is a bullish mindset.

Continuing on the daily level, the above is a bullish mindset, and next there will be a bearish mindset. Don't ask why today is so ambiguous; the current market indeed cannot be judged purely by technical indicators. There is also the possibility that the second wave of a rebound in the downward trend has been broken into 3 small waves, combined with the previous decline and subsequent decline, forming a center. The daily MACD and other indicators are all struggling for survival, or rather tempting everyone to look for new highs. This is also highly likely. So regardless of the situation, the trading methods mentioned above are definitely fine. To make it even more frustrating, it could drop back to 110k, then pull up to a new high, and create a five-wave 1-hour level rebound; all of this is possible. Because the current market is indeed very ambiguous, staying in cash and waiting is the best choice. I apologize for my current ineptitude; if the person who talks about Chan came, they would probably know what to do.

On the 4-hour level, it is currently very strong, and the momentum seems to be gradually decreasing, including the rise of the 4-hour k-line and the energy bars. Combining this with the daily line for judgment, it requires several 4-hour candles to oscillate or a small decline to test and digest the bearish energy. It is challenging to pull directly upward from here. Unless there is a rapid decline, the outlook is bullish. The most favorable trend for the bulls is an upward extension of this kind of consolidation. We should also closely monitor whether a top formation will occur at the 4h, 1h, and daily levels.

Ethereum is the same. The current advice is to go long around the central zone (4280-4300) and go short near the resistance level (blue line 4552). The short can aim for a new low (yellow line trend), while the long at 4280 can target the previous high (around 4770, white line trend).