Altcoin players need to keep a close eye this week!

Brothers, the market is turbulent this week, there are two "big risks" that need to be closely monitored, especially for those trading alts, don't just focus on the K-line, the macro environment has changed, and the ship can capsize at any moment.

First, the U.S. September CPI, which should have been released earlier, is finally announced this Friday. Now institutions are guessing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of about 3.1%. These numbers have a significant impact on our crypto circle, especially on alts.

Why? Just because it "arrived late"! After so many days without a clear message, the market is like a headless fly, with all sorts of rumors and alternative data flying around, and the bulls and bears are arguing endlessly. Once the data comes out on Friday, it will be like giving the market a "final decision"—everyone will rush to recalculate the Federal Reserve's next rate decisions. This kind of "one-time accounting" is the most frightening; cryptocurrencies are already sensitive, so regardless of whether the data is good or bad, it’s possible for prices to jump up or down by dozens of points in a short time. The volatility of alts is even more dramatic, and can only be described as a "roller coaster."

But don't panic too much, focus on two things: the overall CPI is likely to be a bit high due to rising energy prices, but what the Federal Reserve really cares about is the "core CPI" — if this also starts to rise, then expectations for interest rate hikes will heat up, and the market will tremble; if it stabilizes, maybe we can catch a breather.

Second, the U.S. Treasury's bond auctions, one on Wednesday and one on Thursday, may bring a "cold shower" to the market in advance, serving as a potential bearish signal.

On Wednesday, the issuance of 20-year government bonds won't have a significant impact; the main focus is on Thursday's event—the 5-year TIPS, also known as "Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities," will issue a total of 26 billion USD at once. Don't think this is irrelevant to us; there's a lot of depth to it.

The interest rate of TIPS reflects the real interest rate. If this auction sees an increase in this interest rate, it means the market believes "higher risk-free returns are worth it." This is not good news for alts: originally, alts relied on liquidity and "promising big gains"; now that the cost of holding them has increased, institutions and large funds will certainly think twice—rather than endure high-risk speculation on alts, why not buy government bonds that guarantee profits? When funds pull out, the attractiveness of alts will be directly discounted, and the risks will rise sharply. In simple terms: when TIPS interest rates are high, alts will feel "panicked."

Although the "four-year cycle" in the crypto space seems a bit esoteric, these two matters this week have a tangible impact on your wallet. Don't just think about whether the market can continue; first, keep an eye on these two "key signals." Going with the flow is the way to go. Don't wait for the volatility to come while the coins in your hand haven't even warmed up before you end up losing money!