Analysis of BTC Bullish Market and Key Levels

Scenario A: Bulls successfully counterattack (Probability: 60%)
1. Confirmation signal: The price needs to increase in volume (significant expansion in trading volume) to pull up a bullish candle, strongly breaking through the resistance of MA5 (102030) and MA10 (102152).
2. 2. Adding position point: A valid breakthrough and stabilization above 102,300 (MA120/256 accumulation area) can be considered as a confirmation signal for the bulls to regain control.
3. Target level:
- •First target: 102,800 - 103,000 range. This is the area of concentrated positions from the previous period.
- •Second target/ultimate target: the range of 103,200 - 103,400, that is, challenging the previous high position.
Scenario B: Bullish failure, return to consolidation or decline (probability: 40%)
1. Warning Signal: The price is unable to effectively break through 102,150 and begins to retreat.
2. Risk confirmation signal: The price breaks below the key support MA89 (101900) and MA30 (101765).
3. Stop Loss Level: If it falls below 101,750, it means that the "Wave 2" pullback is too deep, and it may test the ultimate support at the starting point of "Wave 1" at 101,650. If this level is also breached, the entire bullish assumption of the "Guiding Wedge" is invalidated, and one must decisively exit the position.
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