Fed "night talk" countdown: Will a single sentence make Bitcoin soar? Or will it flash crash? Lines of dialogue from 3 pros leaked in advance.

Starting from 22:00 Beijing time on November 12, Williams, Harker, and Waller will successively take the stage to speak—expanding the balance sheet, lowering interest rates, regulation, and stablecoins, these four key terms will determine whether BTC breaks through 95,000 or dips to 88,000 that night. This article uses "a script quick reference + two game theory price charts" to pre-analyze each pro's potential explosive points and market reflex arcs, and provides "copyable" short-term grid parameters and risk control points, allowing you to set orders automatically while you sleep, not missing out on volatility, and not missing the trend.
1. 22:00 Williams - "Quantitative Easing" rhetoric vs interest rate cut expectations
1. Key statement review: Two weeks ago he said in Amsterdam that "the reserves are slightly above adequate levels," which the market directly interpreted as "the November minutes will discuss the repurchase of bonds."
2. Tonight's highlights: If it repeats "slightly above" - the US dollar index rises by 0.3% in 15 minutes, 2-year US Treasury yield +8bp, BTC drops by 2%-3%; if it upgrades to "adequate lower bound" - the probability of rate cuts drops from 80% to 70%, the dollar hits 104, BTC could potentially drop by 5%.
3. Strategy: Place a dual limit order in advance at 21:55, buy spot at -3%, open a 2x short position at +2% for hedging, stop loss ±6%, take advantage of 1h volatility expansion.
2. 23:00 Harker - Fintech regulation "gentle knife"
1. Background: The Philadelphia Fed has just released the "AI Payment Monitoring White Paper", specifically mentioning that "on-chain mixers" have a blind spot for money laundering.
2. Possible golden sentences:
① "Any stablecoin transfers exceeding $10,000 must comply with the Travel Rule" - USDC and USDT immediately experienced a selling pressure of $100 million on-chain;
② "Encourage banks to share real-time data with compliant crypto platforms" - Coinbase and PYUSD benefited instantly, with stock prices up 4%, and altcoin payment concepts also rose.
3. Strategy: Split the funds in advance into 70% compliant blue-chip (BTC, ETH, SOL) + 30% "regulatory-friendly" stablecoin pool (USDC/DAI), avoiding anonymous public chain tokens to prevent sudden negative news from causing a flash crash.
3. 23:20 Waller - The gentleness and bottom line of the "father of stablecoins"
1. Positive Scenario: If the "streamlined main account" pilot is proposed again = crypto banks can directly overnight at the Fed, equivalent to issuing "central bank deposit licenses" for stablecoins, USDC market cap expected to increase by 15%, Gas on the ETH chain may briefly surge to 200 gwei, beneficial for L2 (OP, ARB).
2. Bearish Scenario: If "100% reserve rigidity + daily audits" is emphasized - small and medium stablecoins face issuance freezes, the market may see a repeat of the USDC de-pegging panic from March 2023, with BTC possibly dropping 4% in correlation.
3. Strategy: Reduce the leverage multiple to below 1.5 times 10 minutes before Waller's speech, and convert stablecoin positions into RWA US Treasury tokens (OUSG, SGV) to hedge against the risk of rising yields.
4. Bring a "script quick reference sheet" into the venue.
Time Person Keywords Market Script BTC Volatility
22:00 Williams "Adequate Reserves" → Hawk Interest rate cut expectation downgraded -2%~-5%
22:00 Williams "Quickly expanding the balance sheet" → Dovish Dollar plummets +3%~+4%
23:00 Harker "Travel Rule"→Strict Anonymous coins crashed -1%~-3%
23:00 Harker "Sandbox Encouragement"→Wide Compliant coin rises +2%
23:20 Waller "Shrink Main Account" → Dove Stablecoin Surge +4%~+6%
23:20 Waller "100% reserve" → strict limited issuance -2%~-4%
5. Directly copy the two "price sand table".
1. Oscillating Grid (suitable for 88,000–95,000 range)
Interval spacing 1%, position size per grid 10%, stop loss set at box boundary ±3%.
2. Breakthrough Follow-up Orders (suitable for increased volume after speaking)
The closing price in 15 minutes stands above 95,000, go long, target 102,000, stop loss at 92,500;
Break below 88,000, open short, target 83,000, stop loss 90,500.
Remember to keep the leverage within 2 times to prevent a flash crash.
6. Common Pitfall Tips
✗ Do not go all in on betting direction - the three pros are only 80 minutes apart, and emotions can turn 180°.
✗ Do not use high-leverage contracts - the market depth can suddenly drop, and a 10% flash crash in one second is quite common.
✗ Do not ignore the Q&A session—reporters' follow-up questions often reveal the real scoop, and market movements frequently occur in the spontaneous responses.
The Fed's nightly talks have never been a "one-man show," but rather a three-act play: Williams sets the tone for interest rates, Harker draws the regulatory line, and Waller decides the future of payments. Each statement can trigger a shift of billions of dollars in the crypto market. Set your script quick-reference guide as your phone wallpaper in advance, set your grid and breakout orders, and you can turn off your computer and sleep soundly—let the robots catch that $1,000 candlestick in one minute, while you only need to wake up the next day and check your earnings on your phone. #CoinDesk11月报告Gate战绩来袭 #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #XRP现货ETF将上线