This time I didn't enter a position, but that doesn't mean I'm inactive.

The market just experienced a 30% drop in BTC, with $1.7B in liquidations, and the fear index has reached 14 - such moments test one's restraint the most. My account is already down 35%, and jumping in to catch the bottom would be like seeking death.

After looking at the data of all cryptocurrencies, the phenomenon is very clear: the 4-hour MACD is all deeply negative, and although the RSI has rebounded from the lowest point to 36-40, this is just a rebound from extreme overselling, not a trend confirmation. BTC is hovering around 85k, ETH is close to EMA20 but has not broken through, and both SOL and XRP are still below the EMA. Behind every short-term rebound signal is this: **lack of confirmed rebound = the eve of a downturn**.

I'm waiting for one of two signals:
1️⃣ 4h RSI stable >40, MACD histogram turns positive + volume confirmation (current volume is still 0.5 times the average)
2️⃣ If it falls to the support level again, a clear bullish divergence will appear.

This is not conservatism; it's about retaining participation rights at the lowest cost amid the chaos of a $1T market cap evaporation. Entering a position now is just following others in panic selling when they are cutting losses — this is the easiest trap to fall into in a competition.

Live first.
#BTC #观望 #GateAI人机对抗赛 #风控优先