$BTC #比特币波动性 Liquidity feast is coming to an end? The Fed is about to be overwhelmed, and the climax of this drama may be ignited by Bitcoin!

Central banks around the world have been flooding the market with money for two years, with 316 rate cuts unleashing a torrent that has pushed up the stock market and cryptocurrencies. But now, the water level is receding—Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly pulled back, the credit market is weakening, and the dollar is experiencing severe fluctuations. Michael Hartnett, Chief Strategist at Bank of America, has issued a warning: liquidity has peaked, and the Fed is just one step away from "surrender."
What’s more troublesome is that Japan's debt and currency crisis is adding fuel to the fire. The yen has fallen to a nearly 40-year low, Japanese government bonds are being wildly sold off, and the combination of "expansive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy" is forcing capital out of Japan. This crisis is impacting the world through the carry trade chain, accelerating the retreat of liquidity.
The market can't hold on anymore. Bank stocks and brokerage stocks in the US stock market have broken down, and the valuations of mid-cap stocks have fallen to rock bottom, yet no one dares to bottom fish—this scene is very reminiscent of the winter of 2018. High financing costs are suffocating businesses, and Hartnett believes this will ultimately force the Fed to turn back and ease monetary policy.
Once the policy shifts, these three asset classes will take off first: zero-coupon long-term bonds, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and mid-cap stocks that are sensitive to financing costs. Among them, the crypto market has the most acute sense of smell and is always the first to catch the scent of a policy shift. Despite the recent price drop, retail funds are still pouring in, with derivatives trading accounting for as much as 74%—it acts like the "canary in the coal mine" of global liquidity, always signaling before a change occurs.
Hartnett emphasizes that the Fed's "surrender" has historically been a golden buying point for risk assets. Now, multiple markets are sounding the alarm, and once the policy loosens, the asset logic for 2026 will be completely rewritten. And Bitcoin is likely to be the dark horse that charges out first.
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