The Fed lowered the rate, but that was just the beginning of the drama.

On September 18, everything seemed straightforward: the Fed lowered the rate by 25 basis points, as expected, with a 96% probability according to CME FedWatch. The first hours unfolded according to the classic scenario—bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets rose.

But then Jerome Powell came out for a press conference, and the market turned 180 degrees. The dollar index jumped V-shaped, gold fell from historical highs, and stocks diverged in different directions. BTC fell from 117k to 114.7k in two hours, then jumped back to 117k+ — the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

However, the real body was not in the reduction itself, but in the political chaos behind it:

Three lands underfoot:

1. Split in the dot plot — 19 members of the FOMC divided: 9 want 2 more rate hikes by the end of the year, 9 — a maximum of one, some are even in favor of an increase. One radical, likely Steven Mnuchin from the White House, proposes — 125 bps. The market is pricing in 70% for two hikes, while the Fed is at 50/50 — conflict is guaranteed.

2. Powell's formulation about “risk management” — a diplomatic maneuver to “satisfy both”. Result: no one knows when the next meeting will be. Powell himself acknowledged: “there is no risk-free path.”

3. Political interference — Miran took office a day before the meeting and immediately received voting rights. Trump is trying to remove board member Lisa Cook. This is no longer about the economy — it's a struggle for control over the Fed.

Why this is important for crypto:

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in the genesis block of Bitcoin: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.” Critique of the centralized system that bends under political pressure.

16 years later, Miran's voice against this demonstrates exactly that - the monetary policy of the largest central bank in the world now depends not on data, but on short-term political agendas. This undermines the long-term creditworthiness of fiat.

And Bitcoin — with its 21 million, projected issuance, code instead of commands, decentralization — looks like an island of certainty in this chaos.

But wait — a short game:

This positive is already 96% “priced in” before the announcement. The positive from the reduction has been realized — profit-taking is possible. Powell's uncertainty has disappointed speculative bulls.

Mars II indicates a corridor of $85k–( for Bitcoin with fluctuations until the next important statistics regarding jobs or inflation.

Conclusion:

In short - be cautious, prepare for volatility. The market structure is fragile.

Long-term is just the beginning. Every intervention by the White House, every split in the Fed, every conflict of interest is a real argument in favor of decentralized systems. Not the dot plot, but the internal political game will determine not only the dollar, but also the role of crypto in the next macro cycle.