This BTC move is quite interesting. The US-China trade talks have reached a framework agreement, US stocks have hit new highs, but Bitcoin is still dragging its feet—a weekly gain of 5.4%, is that it?

The key issue is: the money hasn’t really flowed in. Last week, only $943 million entered the crypto market, hitting a multi-month low. Net inflows to exchanges were just 2,775 BTC, the quietest state. Meanwhile, long-term holders are selling—over 39,000 BTC were dumped last week, which is usually a signal of a bull-to-bear transition.

Spot ETFs and DATs aren’t doing much either; they were supposed to be saviors, but now they’re losing steam. On-chain data shows the market is still waiting—waiting for risk appetite to return, waiting for real inflows of new capital.

Technically, BTC is barely holding above the 200-day moving average and the “Trump bottom” (90,000-110,000), but the structure remains fragile. Fed rate cuts and easing trade tensions are positive, but their boost to BTC is far weaker than their impact on US stocks.

Simply put: macro factors are improving, but the crypto market hasn’t been activated yet. Next, either institutions come in big and reverse the situation, or the market continues to slide and confirms a bear market. Right now, it’s just a waiting period.