Can #BTC rise to 200,000 next year?

The rainbow chart predicts a bull peak of 200,000 in 25 years, but the result only reached 126,000. However, some insist that its bottom is valid, making 65,000 the iron bottom, and it was pushed again to 200,000 and 250,000 in 26 years. In simple terms, it's just technical charting: because it has risen before, it must rise in the future.
The real driving force behind BTC has always been simple: how much money is being printed globally and how many people are actually using it on-chain. The last two major bull runs occurred after epic money printing globally. At that time, not only did BTC rise, but also houses, stocks, raw materials, and even toys. You didn't need to understand economics; just seeing the prices of everyday life rising was enough to know that money was losing its value.
But this year the situation is clearly more deflationary. Can you say what nationally sought-after assets are being crazily hoarded right now? Other than luxury goods and some rentals being a bit hot, everything else is cold. This state is very similar to Japan's long-term deflation — money becomes more valuable, young people are poorer, old people are richer, and consumption is leaning towards extreme cost-performance ratio. This structure cannot exist for a long time. It is highly probable that the U.S. will continue to flood the market in the next 3–5 years, but there will definitely be a round of major liquidation before the flooding, which is the core reason I have always emphasized that this bear market will not exceed one year.
Many people say to learn from Buffett and just hold on, but Buffett himself is dynamically reducing his holdings and is now sitting on trillions in cash. When you're losing, you always think it will rise back, but the reality is: avoiding a bear market once = earning hundreds of times, being stuck once = needing a tenfold rise to break even. Selling at a high of 100,000 is the future 1,000,000. It's human nature to have loss aversion; the more you lose, the more you want to average down. In fact, a simple technique is: before considering adding to your position, treat all the coins you hold as if you have already sold them, and then ask yourself—if you were in cash, would you be willing to buy now? Many impulsive thoughts will just disappear.
I'm not writing this to shout out bullish or bearish sentiments; it's just casual talk, sorting out thoughts, and preparing for future investments. #比特币行情观察