#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 I've seen too many people stumble in contract trading.

They pile up a bunch of indicators—MACD stacked with KDJ, throw in a Bollinger Band, stare at the 5-minute K-line and frantically open and close positions. The result? They pay a ton in fees and their principal dwindles to almost nothing.

But there’s an interesting phenomenon: those who actually make consistent profits use the simplest, most “basic” methods. Nothing fancy, just three hard rules—don’t be greedy, don’t try to predict tops and bottoms, and never stubbornly hold on to losing positions.

Personally, I rely on this so-called “fool’s strategy” to keep my win rate above 70%. Honestly, it’s just a three-step process—any beginner who follows it can avoid the biggest pitfalls.

**Step One: Choose your asset, don’t touch random coins**

I only focus on BTC and ETH. Why? Their volume is huge, liquidity is deep, and trends are relatively clear. Those altcoins that skyrocket 50% in a day may look tempting, but they’re really just meat grinders—market makers can wipe out retail traders with a single big order.

Mainstream coins may not be exciting, but at least you can read the market. That’s the prerequisite for survival.

**Step Two: Follow the trend, don’t try to be too smart**

I only use one indicator: the MA60 moving average on the 4-hour chart. If the price is above the line and the line is sloping upward, only go long. If the price is below the line and the line is sloping down, only go short.

Don’t try to guess tops or bottoms. When BTC went from $40k to $70k in 2024, a lot of people kept saying “it’s too high, it’s going to drop,” only to miss out and start doubting themselves. Those who simply followed the MA60 and went long made money with their eyes closed.

The trend is the answer; you don’t need to outsmart the market.

**Step Three: Set your rules, exit when it’s time**

Set a 5% stop loss and a 10% take profit. If you open a $10,000 position and it drops to $9,500, cut it immediately. If it rises to $11,000, close right away.

Some people ask: “What if the price rebounds after I stop out?” Let it rebound—it’s better than holding and getting liquidated. In contract trading, survival matters more than being right or wrong.

The core of this method is being “dumb” enough. Dumb enough that you don’t have to think. Dumb enough that just mechanical execution avoids 90% of loss traps.

Peace of mind—just watch one moving average, no need to stare at the screen till you go blind.
Accuracy—follow the trend, don’t go against the market.
Stability—fixed stop loss and take profit, rely on discipline, not luck.

Honestly, most people lose money not because they’re dumb, but because they’re too “smart.” Always trying to catch the bottom or top, always thinking they can predict the market.

The ones who really make money are usually those who admit they don’t understand, and just honestly follow the rules.